Neverending Covid-19 Coronavirus

What I'm most uneasy about is if the 2nd dose is delayed beyond 6-7 weeks. Without going into details, if protection starts to wane and because you're doing this right when the virus you're trying to eradicate is running rampant (ideally you vaccinate outside an epidemic to avoid this, but now we can't), you're basically creating the perfect conditions to breed virus that can escape the vaccines.
That's a good point I hadn't seen brought up. I have also heard that a big fear with the current rampant spread is that it also provides ample opportunity for evolution, especially with the strains that are better at spreading. Maybe a damned if you do, damned if you don't in both of those cases.
 
That's a good point I hadn't seen brought up. I have also heard that a big fear with the current rampant spread is that it also provides ample opportunity for evolution, especially with the strains that are better at spreading. Maybe a damned if you do, damned if you don't in both of those cases.

That's pretty much what I'm referring to. Current spread increases the chance for evolution. Add to that additional people with "weak" or "weakened" immune response to the vaccine (you always get some, but if the gamble doesn't pay off you'd get even more), and you're creating the evolutionary pressure where virus can evolve around the vaccines themselves when given the opportunity to multiply in those people.
 
Last time I checked in during mid-December, it (thankfully) wound up being colds.

However, on Thursday my roommate (we shall call him Shane) tested positive via nasal swab. His only symptom was mild congestion. The other roommate and I promptly got tested. I did the 15 min nasal and was negative. Other roommate did oral and came back negative late last night.

However, today two family members (and the only people in our "bubble circle") of "Shane" test positive. Their only symptoms were loss of taste and smell. Our best guess is that his brother (who is a chef) picked it up at work and passed it along. Interestingly, he did have symptoms until yesterday (which was a full week after "Shane" last saw him).

Luckily, "Shane" has a master bedroom in the downstairs area of the apartment (and has his own bathroom). He is not cooking in the kitchen, we are all wearing masks if not in our bedrooms and are keeping the windows open. However, as I have mentioned elsewhere, I have chronic-Epstein Barr which basically amplifies any virus that I catch. Because of this (and to a lesser degree because of my asthma), several doctors have advised me that I need to have an escape plan if I develop symptoms.

To all the Californians here (Kaiser requires I stay in state for care), any idea what your hospitals are looking like. I know here in LA it's a fucking mess and that is also true of the small towns. Anybody know what it's like in SD, or the Valley, or Bakersfield? Or even the Valley of Nor Cal?

@Dtknuckles
 
Last time I checked in during mid-December, it (thankfully) wound up being colds.

However, on Thursday my roommate (we shall call him Shane) tested positive via nasal swab. His only symptom was mild congestion. The other roommate and I promptly got tested. I did the 15 min nasal and was negative. Other roommate did oral and came back negative late last night.

However, today two family members (and the only people in our "bubble circle") of "Shane" test positive. Their only symptoms were loss of taste and smell. Our best guess is that his brother (who is a chef) picked it up at work and passed it along. Interestingly, he did have symptoms until yesterday (which was a full week after "Shane" last saw him).

Luckily, "Shane" has a master bedroom in the downstairs area of the apartment (and has his own bathroom). He is not cooking in the kitchen, we are all wearing masks if not in our bedrooms and are keeping the windows open. However, as I have mentioned elsewhere, I have chronic-Epstein Barr which basically amplifies any virus that I catch. Because of this (and to a lesser degree because of my asthma), several doctors have advised me that I need to have an escape plan if I develop symptoms.

To all the Californians here (Kaiser requires I stay in state for care), any idea what your hospitals are looking like. I know here in LA it's a fucking mess and that is also true of the small towns. Anybody know what it's like in SD, or the Valley, or Bakersfield? Or even the Valley of Nor Cal?

@Dtknuckles
This sucks I feel for you. Out here we are past capacity. By in state did you mean inside?
 
So a couple things, first the South African variant has a name. It's called B-117 (said B 1.1.7).

Anyone who has already had Covid-19 is highly resistant to B-117, a variant of SARS-CoV-2. So in one respect the old virus is helping us against the new one. Most important, the new vaccines that have been developed against SARS-CoV-2 and that are being rolled out in the U.S. and several other countries around the world are likely to protect us against B-117, meaning vaccination campaigns could defeat both viruses.

Yet B-117 has two critical advantages. One is that we’re justifiably exhausted from fighting Covid-19. People may struggle to muster the energy to respond to a new viral threat, especially when the rise of the new virus is hidden in the larger sea of SARS-CoV-2 cases. The other is that cases of B-117 can rise far faster than those of our 2020 foe. In the United Kingdom, where B-117 appears to have evolved, most districts that imposed Tier 4 stay-at-home conditions kept SARS-CoV-2 cases flat only to see B-117 increase 10-fold every three weeks or so. The same pattern of exponential growth seems to have begun in Denmark.




<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Next 11+ days are horrifying. Uncontrolled spread. Slow vaccine rollout. Worrisome variants. Potential for perfect storm. Political turmoil and leadership vacuum. More in my thread this evening. <a href="https://t.co/ff11ntNev9">pic.twitter.com/ff11ntNev9</a></p>&mdash; Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) <a href="">January 8, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And second thing, our vaccine roll out process.

It seems that a comprehensive vaccine roll out plan is more effective than the most effective vaccine stuck in people willy-nilly. Like everything important in life, vaccine roll out requires a little planning:

Using a mathematical simulation of vaccination, we find that factors related to implementation will contribute more to the success of vaccination programs than a vaccine’s efficacy as determined in clinical trials. The benefits of a vaccine will decline substantially in the event of manufacturing or deployment delays, significant vaccine hesitancy, or greater epidemic severity. Our findings demonstrate the urgent need for health officials to invest greater financial resources and attention to vaccine production and distribution programs, to redouble efforts to promote public confidence in COVID-19 vaccines, and to encourage continued adherence to other mitigation approaches, even after a vaccine becomes available.

And just to add to the vaccinate now and not hold anything back vs. making sure everyone that was vaccinated has a second dose first, I really like this suggestion:

There are two ways to resolve this question: We can debate it on social media or we can go get more data. I believe we should do the latter, and propose that academic nonprofit hospitals in the U.S. immediately start a study of their own employees.

The data this study would generate could clarify whether the seemingly intuitive first-shot approach has downsides when compared to the stricter set-aside strategy by focusing on two questions: How long does immunity from the first shot last? And how well does the booster work when it is delayed (no one has yet proposed just a single shot with no booster)?

 
Looks like they are rapidly approaching 10% (reported) infected, which is horrible. Especially considering their population is 13x that of North Dakota.

And my kids school district want to start TK-2 in person learning in February. I’m speaking up at the school site council meeting and I Leary’s sent a public comment to the school board meeting this week.
 
And my kids school district want to start TK-2 in person learning in February. I’m speaking up at the school site council meeting and I Leary’s sent a public comment to the school board meeting this week.
I've been reading some about this new B-117 variant of Covid and they are saying that it more easily spreads among children as well. They aren't sure if kids had a protective effect against other variants that we are not seeing here, or that the new variant can spread even with the current social distancing and mask wearing. The last thing I want to do is be an alarmist about any of this but I do suggest that you put this one on your radar as it could really impact people in LA since the virus is already uncontrolled as is.

Please keep safe.

B117 seems to be more prevalent than the older variants in children and young people aged 0-19 years. The reasons aren’t yet clear. It’s possible that the variant is better at infecting young people than previous strains, but also possible that this increase reflects the fact that schools remained open during the lockdown, so more spreading went on there than elsewhere. At any rate, despite higher infection levels, reports that B117 might be causing more hospitalised casualties among children do not seem to be borne out. Russell Viner, of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health in London, has said that “The overwhelming majority of children and young people have no symptoms or very mild illness only… as yet, we are not seeing any greater severity amongst children and young people.”

 
I hit my limit today and am staying off FB and Twitter for awhile. I am realizing that the anti-vax stuff makes me even more upset than other issues right now...and that's really saying something. I wish I could stay away from my coworkers who remind me every day that my wife shouldn't have gotten the vaccine and that round two might damage her, but that unfortunately can't happen.

Anyway, I would like to know for my own sake; what is the data showing so far about side effects to the vaccine? My wife had no adverse reactions aside from the sore arm which of course is common for most any shot. Her next shot is in two weeks. I'm just looking for some sane, level information to help my brain rest. The Twidiots are saying that round 1 is killing the elderly so 'they' can pump up the Covid death numbers. Plus it's causing heart attacks. And on and on.

I am not trying to bring negativity in here, sorry if it comes off that way. It's just that this is the place I turn to for sanity, especially when I'm at my wits' end.

peace
 
Brother-in-law's coworker tested positive last week, and now he thinks he might have it. Yet, he still went in to his office today, because the company's PTO/leave policy is not good, and he doesn't want to use up his hours... The company also doesn't require masks at the office, so if he does have it, he's likely going to contribute to further spread today. Said that maybe if his whole department gets sick, it will make the company re-think their policies 🤦‍♂️😞
 
I hit my limit today and am staying off FB and Twitter for awhile. I am realizing that the anti-vax stuff makes me even more upset than other issues right now...and that's really saying something. I wish I could stay away from my coworkers who remind me every day that my wife shouldn't have gotten the vaccine and that round two might damage her, but that unfortunately can't happen.

Anyway, I would like to know for my own sake; what is the data showing so far about side effects to the vaccine? My wife had no adverse reactions aside from the sore arm which of course is common for most any shot. Her next shot is in two weeks. I'm just looking for some sane, level information to help my brain rest. The Twidiots are saying that round 1 is killing the elderly so 'they' can pump up the Covid death numbers. Plus it's causing heart attacks. And on and on.

I am not trying to bring negativity in here, sorry if it comes off that way. It's just that this is the place I turn to for sanity, especially when I'm at my wits' end.

peace

During testing, there was a higher chance of the usual side-effects after the 2nd dose compared to the first (things like headaches, body aches and chills). They were brief and controllable with over-the-counter medication (acetaminophen, ibuprophen). Otherwise, there are very little side-effects being reported beyond allergies and a few cases of Bell's (unclear if it's vaccine-related though, as the observed proportion was lower than the incidence in a normal population). I haven't read about anything else significant.

 
I hit my limit today and am staying off FB and Twitter for awhile. I am realizing that the anti-vax stuff makes me even more upset than other issues right now...and that's really saying something. I wish I could stay away from my coworkers who remind me every day that my wife shouldn't have gotten the vaccine and that round two might damage her, but that unfortunately can't happen.

Anyway, I would like to know for my own sake; what is the data showing so far about side effects to the vaccine? My wife had no adverse reactions aside from the sore arm which of course is common for most any shot. Her next shot is in two weeks. I'm just looking for some sane, level information to help my brain rest. The Twidiots are saying that round 1 is killing the elderly so 'they' can pump up the Covid death numbers. Plus it's causing heart attacks. And on and on.

I am not trying to bring negativity in here, sorry if it comes off that way. It's just that this is the place I turn to for sanity, especially when I'm at my wits' end.

peace

Common side effects for the vaccine treatment were mild-to-moderate injection-site pain, headache, and fatigue. Overall, severe adverse events occurred in 0.5% of the intervention group and 0.2% of the placebo group, and none were classified as immediately life-threatening or as a cause of death.

Similar to Moderna's vaccine, the most common adverse effects were mild-to-moderate injection-site pain, fatigue, and headaches, as reported by a subgroup of 8,183 people. Those younger than 55 experienced more injection-site pain and systemic symptoms than older patients.

"The frequency of any severe systemic event after the first dose was 0.9% or less. Severe systemic events were reported in less than 2% of vaccine recipients after either dose, except for fatigue (in 3.8%) and headache (in 2.0%) after the second dose," the researchers write. No vaccine-related deaths occurred in any study participant.



Here's a Q&A that talks about side effects, but there is no data behind this one that I can see:

Moderna’s vaccine initially showed an impressive 100 percent efficacy at preventing severe symptoms in people who received it. While 30 people in the clinical trial’s placebo group developed severe disease, no vaccinated person did. Since that analysis occurred, however, one person in the vaccine group may have developed a severe case, but that is not yet validated, Rachel Zhang, a medical officer with the FDA, said in the Dec. 17 hearing.

Pfizer originally announced in a Nov. 18 news release that its vaccine appeared to prevent people from becoming severely ill as well. But there have been too few cases in that trial to know for sure, experts say (SN: 11/18/20; 12/10/20). Four Pfizer trial participants developed severe COVID-19, three of whom received the placebo.

Still, “it’s very clear for both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines that symptomatic coronavirus [cases] and coronavirus infections requiring hospitalization are dramatically reduced,” says Andrea Cox, a viral immunologist at Johns Hopkins University.


Here are some scholarly articles I found. It looks like the symptoms are very similar to the flu vaccine. We really won't have great, peer review articles with accurate data and methods for another few months. I think that once we have a few months of lag time, we should get a lot better data on symptom rates and severity.
 
During testing, there was a higher chance of the usual side-effects after the 2nd dose compared to the first (things like headaches, body aches and chills). They were brief and controllable with over-the-counter medication (acetaminophen, ibuprophen). Otherwise, there are very little side-effects being reported beyond allergies and a few cases of Bell's (unclear if it's vaccine-related though, as the observed proportion was lower than the incidence in a normal population). I haven't read about anything else significant.


Common side effects for the vaccine treatment were mild-to-moderate injection-site pain, headache, and fatigue. Overall, severe adverse events occurred in 0.5% of the intervention group and 0.2% of the placebo group, and none were classified as immediately life-threatening or as a cause of death.

Similar to Moderna's vaccine, the most common adverse effects were mild-to-moderate injection-site pain, fatigue, and headaches, as reported by a subgroup of 8,183 people. Those younger than 55 experienced more injection-site pain and systemic symptoms than older patients.

"The frequency of any severe systemic event after the first dose was 0.9% or less. Severe systemic events were reported in less than 2% of vaccine recipients after either dose, except for fatigue (in 3.8%) and headache (in 2.0%) after the second dose," the researchers write. No vaccine-related deaths occurred in any study participant.



Here's a Q&A that talks about side effects, but there is no data behind this one that I can see:

Moderna’s vaccine initially showed an impressive 100 percent efficacy at preventing severe symptoms in people who received it. While 30 people in the clinical trial’s placebo group developed severe disease, no vaccinated person did. Since that analysis occurred, however, one person in the vaccine group may have developed a severe case, but that is not yet validated, Rachel Zhang, a medical officer with the FDA, said in the Dec. 17 hearing.

Pfizer originally announced in a Nov. 18 news release that its vaccine appeared to prevent people from becoming severely ill as well. But there have been too few cases in that trial to know for sure, experts say (SN: 11/18/20; 12/10/20). Four Pfizer trial participants developed severe COVID-19, three of whom received the placebo.

Still, “it’s very clear for both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines that symptomatic coronavirus [cases] and coronavirus infections requiring hospitalization are dramatically reduced,” says Andrea Cox, a viral immunologist at Johns Hopkins University.


Here are some scholarly articles I found. It looks like the symptoms are very similar to the flu vaccine. We really won't have great, peer review articles with accurate data and methods for another few months. I think that once we have a few months of lag time, we should get a lot better data on symptom rates and severity.
Thank you both. This relaxes my mind. I won't bother to take any of the info to social media though, people there don't like science. Hmmm, maybe if I yelled this info while driving and posted it to Youtube it would resonate. :)
 
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