Neverending Covid-19 Coronavirus

For me it says everything is out of stock. The 2 that are listed as pre-order bring me to the amazon homepage and not the product page so yeah.

No luck with me. But at least I have 3 spare rolls still.
You just have to keep checking and checking and refreshing that page. Try all the links that say either Pre-Order or in stock. It updates every 5 minutes so check back often.
 
In my particular modeling community we have a saying (maybe all modeling disciplines have it - i don't know)...
all models are wrong but some models are useful
why? because they're only as good as the data, assumptions, and conceptual models that fuel them

that doesn't mean they don't provide us with useful information... they're just not crystal balls or nostredamus as some people believe
I model buildings. I won't say my models are never wrong but they are so fucking useful that if they were wrong it would cost 10's to 100's of thousands of dollars for the smallest mistake. I would concede that there is a level of detail we never try to approach with building models because the payoff for the effort does not exist (e.g.we model a dimensional window but not the composition and flashing system of said window). That said, as model authoring software increases in sophistication and the ability of computer maintenance and ROI analysis system grows, more and more detail is showing up in construction models as a single point of reference to feed those systems.

My models are no less models of the type you speak of. The current vernacular refers to them as digitial twins and we literally plan construction operations virtually before committing to again building the real thing in meat space. The difference I think is that the purpose, utility, and scope of my models are largely understood across the board for those who participate in it.
 
I model buildings.

My models are no less models of the type you speak of. The current vernacular refers to them as digitial twins and we literally plan construction operations virtually before committing to again building the real thing in meat space. The difference I think is that the purpose, utility, and scope of my models are largely understood across the board for those who participate in it.

I think the inputs to your models are more well-understood in that there is less variability in some, many?, of the factors. They're no less complicated but perhaps the factors are more static?

I'm not an epidemiologist so I can't speak to their models as an expert, but my assumption is that human behaviors / choices are more difficult to account for and there is a heavy reliance on past trends without fully understanding the human behaviors that may be driving them, even with large sample sizes.

As far as the natural sciences I'm more familiar with there are a number of phenomena that you just can't see with your own two eyes easily because they are too big or too small or happen so quickly or slowly that they make modeling results more variable and perhaps more dependent on the quality and quantity of the observations you do have...but they people who use them do understand.... the general public and too often the people responsible for making decisions don't because science literacy and education are poor, and technical people do a poor job of communicating it. It's pretty difficult to have a digital twin of something that is constantly changing with time.
 
So our Credit Union is split between 2 buildings, one is the Administrative Office where I am, the other is most of the Lending, RE and Solutions dept. That building was quarantined this morning because of "incidental contact with a family member who may have been exposed". So half our overall staff got sent home, to our companies credit, they're still paying everyone and working on setting everyone up remotely. A lot of people so it's gonna take a little time.

I helped set up a few laptops for people today and then was told to work from home as well starting tomorrow, the rest of my department is still in AO, but they'll be continuing with laptops/remote setups tomorrow and sending more bodies home until it's deemed safe to return.

I gotta admit, I felt a bit like the men sneaking on the lifeboats of the Titanic when I left today, glad to be under my own roof, but really want to see them get as many people out of the building as possible as soon as possible.
 

Its 2am and I'm alittle delirious but it strikes as interesting that this means the rate of infection is obviously way higher than we are led to believe, but the recovery rate is also far greater than it seems
 
So our Credit Union is split between 2 buildings, one is the Administrative Office where I am, the other is most of the Lending, RE and Solutions dept. That building was quarantined this morning because of "incidental contact with a family member who may have been exposed". So half our overall staff got sent home, to our companies credit, they're still paying everyone and working on setting everyone up remotely. A lot of people so it's gonna take a little time.

I helped set up a few laptops for people today and then was told to work from home as well starting tomorrow, the rest of my department is still in AO, but they'll be continuing with laptops/remote setups tomorrow and sending more bodies home until it's deemed safe to return.

I gotta admit, I felt a bit like the men sneaking on the lifeboats of the Titanic when I left today, glad to be under my own roof, but really want to see them get as many people out of the building as possible as soon as possible.
I felt a little guilty on Wednesday when I was off.
 
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WASHINGTON — The White House had been preparing to reveal on Wednesday a joint venture between General Motors and Ventec Life Systems that would allow for the production of as many as 80,000 desperately needed ventilators to respond to an escalating pandemic when word suddenly came down that the announcement was off.

The decision to cancel the announcement, government officials say, came after the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it needed more time to assess whether the estimated cost was prohibitive. That price tag was more than $1 billion, with several hundred million dollars to be paid upfront to General Motors to retool a car parts plant in Kokomo, Ind., where the ventilators would be made with Ventec’s technology.


Trump also had this Comment on Fox News last night:

I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be,” he said. “I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now all of a sudden they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’
 




Trump also had this Comment on Fox News last night:

Well if Trump doesn't believe it, must be more fake news.

He's going to get people killed. Arguably already has.
 
I'm confused as to why everyone hasn't just hit the mute button on Trump. He's clearly incompetent and incapable of acting outside of some intended reality distortion to shroud that very fact. Is the president even functionally necessary to carry out the correct actions towards the crisis?
 
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