WHAT IS THIS HOT GARBAGE???
A Johns Hopkins University study finds COVID-19 lockdowns did little to save lives in the United States and Europe.
www.kttc.com
So, I had to go to the study and read the methods y'all, because bad science is my kryptonite.
After screening based on the title, 1,048 papers remained. These papers were manually screened by answering two questions: 1. Does the study measure the effect of lockdowns on mortality? 2. Does the study use an empirical ex post difference-in-difference approach (see eligibility criteria below)? Studies to which we could not answer “yes” to both questions were excluded. When in doubt, we made the assessment based on reading the full paper, and in some cases, we consulted with colleagues.11
We distinguish between two methods used to establish a relationship (or lack thereof) between mortality rates and lockdown policies. The first uses registered cross-sectional mortality data. These are ex post studies. The second method uses simulated data on mortality and infection rates. 15 These are ex ante studies. We include all studies using a counterfactual difference-in-difference approach from the former group but disregard all ex ante studies, as the results from these studies are determined by model assumptions and calibrations. Our limitation to studies using a “counterfactual difference-in-difference approach” means that we exclude all studies where the counterfactual is based on forecasting (such as a SIR-model) rather than derived from a difference-in-difference approach. This excludes studies like Duchemin et al. (2020) and Matzinger and Skinner (2020). We also exclude all studies based on interrupted time series designs that simply compare the situation before and after lockdown, as the effect of lockdowns in these studies might contain time-dependent shifts, such as seasonality. This excludes studies like Bakolis et al. (2021) and Siedner et al. (2020).
Given our criteria, we exclude the much-cited paper by Flaxman et al. (2020), which claimed that lockdowns saved three million lives in Europe. Flaxman et al. assume that the pandemic would follow an epidemiological curve unless countries locked down. However, this assumption means that the only interpretation possible for the empirical results is that lockdowns are the only thing that matters, even if other factors like season, behavior etc. caused the observed change in the reproduction rate, Rt. Flaxman et al. are aware of this and state that “our parametric form of Rt assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behavior.” Flaxman et al. illustrate how problematic it is to force data to fit a certain model if you want to infer the effect of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality.
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/f...ffects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf
^^ So basically, they had a ton of papers. They weeded out a ton of papers. And they also chose not to use papers that assumed the virus would have spread parabolically among a population because somehow SOMEHOW short term lockdowns which were only supposed to happen for a couple of months, can somehow be influenced by seasonality and gradual human behavior changes due to living in a pandemic. Sure, let's weed out all the papers that "simply compare the situation before and after lockdown" because those are BS due to "time dependent shifts like seasonality". So we can't look at these papers because people behave differently in winter than they do in spring/summer is what they are saying. We cannot just take observational measurements and interpolate from there. We can't take Asian countries that opted for lockdowns and look at mortality rates compared to the West, because SUMMER IS DIFFERENT THAN WINTER. Instead, we are going to take a ton of BS postulation, thus the inclusion of "simulated data on mortality and infection rates. So instead of using REAL data on actual mortality rates of countries that locked down vs no because of seasons, they are going to use studies with simulated data. I don't know if I can read anymore and I'm only on page 9.
I swear this was funded by corporate America to justify keeping people in unsafe working conditions. That's the only thing I see this study being good for.