Political Discussion

Maricopa county is gigantic who knows where those votes came from with the county. It was always gonna tighten but Mark Kelly is up like 5% and while I think there will probably be some vote splitting I doubt it will be THAT much.
 
Election Betting Odds gives Biden these chances of taking the following states

Total current electoral prediction: 306-232

Nevada- 81%
Arizona- 66%
Georgia- 61%
Pennsylvania- 82%
North Carolina- 12%

Interesting to note is that the chance of Trump winning the electoral is around the same as the dems taking NC.... so if NC turning blue seems laughable, just think... you can probably sleep easy about the electoral.
 
Last edited:
I hate to ask this, but if Biden dies before taking office... what happens?
 
Last edited:
I think I’ve said this on the thread some time before, but one thing I’ve believed for the last few years is that one of the problems with following politics in the a Trump era is that we, both as individuals and as a society, have (for several overlapping reasons) not permitted ourselves to acknowledge Trump’s victory in 2016 for what it truly was: a literal trauma for every sane American, including many of the people who actually voted for him (not really believing that he would actually win). For the vast majority of Americans, it obliterated many of our deeply-held assumptions, in much the same way as, say, 9/11. But our political media couldn’t treat it that way, and neither could most people on their own.

Earlier today I was thinking about that, and about how a lot of the frustration and anxiety that we’ve all experienced, and watched others experience, over the last 24 hours stems from the fact that, whatever our theories on the polls or the electoral map or the timing of vote counts or whatever, what we were really hoping for (beyond obviously an end to the nightmare) was a moment of catharsis - the moment when the news networks called the 270th vote for Biden and we could all just let go, by ourselves and together, and let it all out and feel a bit safer again. This need, like so many other awful features of the Trump era, has intensified over the last 8 months. The lowest I got during quarantine was back in May or June, when I finally accepted that there would be no end, no magic moment when we could declare victory and feel like it was all worth it. We won’t get it now either - this election will drag on for a while, with everyone gradually accepting and acclimating to the reality of a Biden victory, and on some day over the next few weeks there will come a point where it becomes official; where a certain random state officially certifies its results and puts Biden over the top once and for all. But there won’t be any pomp and circumstance to it, and we‘ll never get that collective moment that we all need, even if we don’t know it or won’t admit it.

Anyway that’s what I was thinking about earlier. And then I saw this tweet and this picture,


and I laughed for five consecutive minutes. Legit tears rolling down my face. It’s perhaps my favorite picture that doesn’t involve at least one of my kids or Derek Jeter. I’m going to frame it and hang it where my TV used to be. The mob of Nazis that raised havoc in Charlottesville has reverted to their prior state as a half-dozen College Republican dorks. Feels like the sun finally peeking through the clouds.
 
I think I’ve said this on the thread some time before, but one thing I’ve believed for the last few years is that one of the problems with following politics in the a Trump era is that we, both as individuals and as a society, have (for several overlapping reasons) not permitted ourselves to acknowledge Trump’s victory in 2016 for what it truly was: a literal trauma for every sane American, including many of the people who actually voted for him (not really believing that he would actually win). For the vast majority of Americans, it obliterated many of our deeply-held assumptions, in much the same way as, say, 9/11. But our political media couldn’t treat it that way, and neither could most people on their own.

Earlier today I was thinking about that, and about how a lot of the frustration and anxiety that we’ve all experienced, and watched others experience, over the last 24 hours stems from the fact that, whatever our theories on the polls or the electoral map or the timing of vote counts or whatever, what we were really hoping for (beyond obviously an end to the nightmare) was a moment of catharsis - the moment when the news networks called the 270th vote for Biden and we could all just let go, by ourselves and together, and let it all out and feel a bit safer again. This need, like so many other awful features of the Trump era, has intensified over the last 8 months. The lowest I got during quarantine was back in May or June, when I finally accepted that there would be no end, no magic moment when we could declare victory and feel like it was all worth it. We won’t get it now either - this election will drag on for a while, with everyone gradually accepting and acclimating to the reality of a Biden victory, and on some day over the next few weeks there will come a point where it becomes official; where a certain random state officially certifies its results and puts Biden over the top once and for all. But there won’t be any pomp and circumstance to it, and we‘ll never get that collective moment that we all need, even if we don’t know it or won’t admit it.

Anyway that’s what I was thinking about earlier. And then I saw this tweet and this picture,


and I laughed for five consecutive minutes. Legit tears rolling down my face. It’s perhaps my favorite picture that doesn’t involve at least one of my kids or Derek Jeter. I’m going to frame it and hang it where my TV used to be. The mob of Nazis that raised havoc in Charlottesville has reverted to their prior state as a half-dozen College Republican dorks. Feels like the sun finally peeking through the clouds.

That last part was beautiful to read, thank you.
 
im scared again

i dont think georgia is going to go blue

no reports of more votes and when we do get updates its not enough to move us past the 32K we're at right now.... i just want the cathartic release of "everything is OK things will be normal"
 
“Donald Trump did *slightly* better with non-white than in 2016. [But what made this close] is that Trump juiced his turnout by finding *10 million* non-college educated white voters, registering them to vote and turning them out in mass.”

- Obama’s former speech writer on the always excellent Pod Save America.

The mainstream media is trying to make this about the Latino vote because it deflects away from the real problem. Democrats AGAIN nominated a candidate who had zero grass roots infrastructure, zero activists willing to pour their blood sweat and tears into the hustle and grind that successful campaigns usually require. And they did so against a candidate who has that infrastructure and enthusiasm in spades.

If you are wondering why the polls are off, their are several reasons but the biggest is that most polling only calls registered voters. Not only that, they prioritize calling “likely voters”. Similarly, if you are wondering why Democrats didn’t do better in down ballots races it’s because down ballot races depend on having a presidential candidate with robust grassroots infrastructure.

Also, in case you need evidence of the importance of grassroots organizing... as others have pointed out, Arizona flipped in large part because there is HUGE grassroots infrastructure there- particularly among Latinos- that was built during the battle against bigoted sherif Joe Arpaio years ago. Similarly, the work that Stacy Abraham’s and Beto put into their home states several years ago laid the foundation for those states now being competitive.
 
im scared again

i dont think georgia is going to go blue

no reports of more votes and when we do get updates its not enough to move us past the 32K we're at right now.... i just want the cathartic release of "everything is OK things will be normal"

I dont think any of them are now tbh except for maybe PA
Who knows where Nevada will go.

Fk this :(
 
There's enough votes remaining in Philadelphia county alone for Biden to overtake his 180,000 deficit to Trump in PA, assuming he gets 75% (he's actually getting 79% right now in Philadelphia county, so I'm being conservative). There are lots of mail-in ballots to be counted in other blue counties too.

I believe Biden gets this through PA, whatever else happens.

EDIT: gap is down to 170,000 already
 
Last edited:

it seems so highly unlikely now with how little votes are coming in... i think its set in stone


im being full of doom but thats because i hoped for honest catharsis... i wanted to feel joy... what am i even doing
I wouldn't get hung up on the amount of vote coming in. That's more to do with how quickly (or not) that they're counting votes. It doesn't necessarily mean more aren't coming.
 
I wouldn't get hung up on the amount of vote coming in. That's more to do with how quickly (or not) that they're counting votes. It doesn't necessarily mean more aren't coming.
People gotta sleep, don’t think they’re doing this around the clock... I can expect definitive results tomorrow afternoon!
 
Back
Top