I mean just with the Biden situation. I have to trust that all those world leaders were doing the right thing by putting pressure on the Ukraine to dismiss the prosecutor. What proof do I really have?
With Global Warming, yea I have listed to a bit of information, but don't really the grasp of everything. My information is really basic. Even when the data is there I still have to trust myself and others to get behind it.
With the school data. It struck me that they were all excited about being the top school. In my head I was like of course you are. It's one of a hand full of schools in the area that are upper middle class. Then they were praising margins of 2-3% percent. I mean that is within normal variance. It's not even a significant difference.
Things can get really complex and even on simple things we have to be able to be convinced. The reason that I brought up Religion and Government is that has typically been ways that have been used to generate a common identity to regardless of what data and reality tell us. It seems like identity is more of a motivating factor when people have low information regarding issues and even when they have high information for that matter.
Yes, the identity thing is kind-of what I was referring to in some of my previous posts. I think people fall back on identities because it's easy and they've been directed / convinced to do so through long-running propaganda campaigns, but that is what scientific thought and approach can combat. Ideally it's about a shared understanding of how the world works through physics, chemistry, and mathematics. People often make the choice to interpret those things through the lens of religion, political affiliation, or economic theory.
Variance is a complicated thing to most people and when you are rewarded for having things look a certain way and not actually having them be that way then you can see why people don't want to think about how real or true a result might be. It's a lot easier to say we're doing great instead of saying we're probably doing alright, but we may not be that much better than these other schools or in previous years. We live in a TLDR world.
Global warming seems more confusing to people than it is. It's been made confusing on purpose in some cases, but most people already know all that they need to know to make informed choices. You don't have to know the ins and outs of global circulation models to understand the mechanisms for warming.
This is all people need to know to make decisions:
When you take geologic carbon (oil, coal), carbon in trees, carbon in soil, and through various processes convert that carbon into carbon gas it moves into a much more rapidly cycling system (the atmosphere). Because that increase in atmospheric carbon gas is capturing more of the sun's radiation the earth's surface is warmer. There are a host of downstream effects and positive feedback loops associated with that warming that lead to all of things people like to point to as impacts (melting ice caps, increased storm intensity, sea level rise, higher winter temps). Earth's climate also can change and is changing due to other things like how close we come to the sun each year, how much the earth wobbles on it's axis, and how much volcanic activity there is. But those factors take a lot of time (millennia) to change climate. Humans have managed to exploit natural resources so rapidly that climate is changing faster than at any time in earth's history, with the exception of a few cataclysmic events. These rapid changes have been observed. They have been measured. Some people will have enough resources to adjust to new climate realities. Many, many more people will not.
Sorry to turn this into the science discussion thread, but I wanted to see if I could summarize in a way that was only slightly too long to read.... and to Lee's point. I'm more optimistic that people can take in information and data and overcome propaganda / brainwashing. At a minimum, they have to be given the opportunity to fail and I don't think scientists, academics, industry, the government, or the media do a very good job at providing that opportunity.