Twentytwo
Pre-order Goodness
If only we could be that lucky, but if he wins if it will be free and fair election with no voter fraud anywhere to be seen. These are the same people bitching about everyone getting a participation trophy.
Political Discussion
- Thread starter David A.
- Start date
Nee Lewman
बैस्टर्ड
I don’t bitch about them, but I do think they are dumb.
Nee Lewman
बैस्टर्ड
This knucklehead also said he called Ross Perot in the interview from the article. Um. Shit maybe they really are Nazis.
Nee Lewman
बैस्टर्ड
Um…
TenderLovingKiller®
Well-Known Member
Um…
They wanna have it both ways.
the reason polls were off the last two POTUS cycles were because they were underestimating Trump voters. In 2022 they overestimated MAGA voters and blamed it on the fact that Trump was not on the ballot.
Look at the polls from the senate race in PA in 2022. They had Oz up 3 to 6 points in their final polls prior to the election and while close Fetterman took it. I think Trump will drive out more casual voters for sure but I don’t think there is another batch of unaccounted voters that will show up to save him this time.
Trump has pushed all his chips in on getting groups of men that typically don’t vote to actually vote for him (it’s why you keep seeing those stupid anti-trans ads during sporting event). Men that didn’t vote for him prior but still prefer Trump to Harris, men that typically don’t vote at all.
The last person that actually got these men to turn out in high numbers was Obama in 2008, obviously this was more POC than whites but it was the last time an election had a sizable chunk turn out to vote.
Since Trump is overly relying on these voters he has basically told suburban women to fuck off and ceded those voters to Harris. The problem is these women are much more politically engaged and are a much more reliable voting segment than low information registered men.
Nothing in early voting has indicated a large surge in new voters either. Most who have voted early have also voted in previous elections.
This means that on Election Day Trump will have to have a robust get out the vote operation to mobilize these low engagement voters to actually vote. He has not invested the resources into such a coordinated effort and is instead relying on several different independent and religious organizations to push this effort. These organizations have never done this before and are not coordinated meaning lots of bad info and overlapping redundancies.
I have a feeling the post-mortem following the election about “what pollster got wrong” will be overwhelmingly obvious hindsight being 20/20.
Twentytwo
Pre-order Goodness
I am definitely more encouraged late in this week than I was last week but I still think it could go either way. I just feel like there is just enough number of people that vote for him that don't tell anybody they vote for him that could help him win.
mdmost
Well-Known Member
I just don't think people are that shy anymore about supporting him. I also don't think people are that enthusiastic for him as they once were. The MAGA are hardcore but that's not as big of a number. I don't think those inclined to vote for him are going to be that motivated on election day because I don't think they're big voters to begin with. I think people who want to vote for Kamala are a lot more motivated. She'll get a lot more crossover votes than he will, especially from disaffected Republicans who were horrified by Jan 6. I think you'll see a lot of Liz Cheney types who will hold their nose and vote for her because they don't want him back in office. They want the GOP to move on from him. The exit polls are looking pretty good so far for Kamala in PA, WI, and MI.
Turbo
Well-Known Member
More Than Half of U.S. Votes Likely Cast Before Election Day
Although early voting is likely to be down from 2020, over half of U.S. registered voters plan to vote before Election Day this year.
news.gallup.com
Gallup poll looking at the make-up of voters and this result might be the best news for Dems. Voter enthusiasm this year is even higher than in 2008, underlying reasons being different of course, but Dems appear to be keen about going out to vote.
wokeupnew
Well-Known Member
TenderLovingKiller®
Well-Known Member
Trump voters aren’t usually the shyest bunch. Usually they get off on “making liberals cry” I think there a lot more people that are quietly fed up with all the nonsense, they don’t have signs or hats but they still vote.
BjorgenFjorgen
Well-Known Member
Yeah this'll help, you evil morons.
ayayrawn
Well-Known Member
Doing this in Michigan is stupid as fuck, what's the point. Get his syphilitic ass outta here.
Nee Lewman
बैस्टर्ड
One of the things I have read, is throughout history, democratic governments such as Rome, when left to self govern tend to go further right over time and choose authoritarian rule.
Why is this. And is this what we are seeing with MAGA and the Democratic Party becoming maybe right of center over the last 50 years.
Just got my Open Enrollment information in the mail today. Starts November 5th.
The PPO 2 plan is going to go from $188/month to $286/month. Ouch!!!
There is a cheaper CDHP with HSA plan available for $113 a month. But it has a $10,000 deductible and you have to pay 100% of your medication and medical expenses before the decidable is met and they start paying for anything. No thanks.
This also blows my mind. The Family plan, which is Employee, Spouse and Child(Ren) for the PPO1 plan is more than $1,000 a month.
I bet you anything the amount my company is contributing has not changed much if at all. Wish they listed that in the Open Enrollment information.
I figured it out from my w2 last year, they contributed a little over $7,000, which I think its less than average for companies in the United States. But I'm not sure.
The PPO 2 plan is going to go from $188/month to $286/month. Ouch!!!
There is a cheaper CDHP with HSA plan available for $113 a month. But it has a $10,000 deductible and you have to pay 100% of your medication and medical expenses before the decidable is met and they start paying for anything. No thanks.
This also blows my mind. The Family plan, which is Employee, Spouse and Child(Ren) for the PPO1 plan is more than $1,000 a month.
I bet you anything the amount my company is contributing has not changed much if at all. Wish they listed that in the Open Enrollment information.
I figured it out from my w2 last year, they contributed a little over $7,000, which I think its less than average for companies in the United States. But I'm not sure.
DownIsTheNewUp
Well-Known Member
I'm a ball of anxiety that is attempting to tune everything the fuck out. My chronic epsteinn barr has flared up- maybe due to the stress of the election- but if my body gets it together by Sunday, I'm driving to WI with my cousin to canvass UW.
I can't say I didn't do anything when the elction is this high stakes.
threesunrises
Well-Known Member
I sent this to my daughter early this morning. Listen to it, and I hope that your anxiety level drops.
Not gonna lie, mine is sky high, but ultimately, I do believe that we've got this. Feel better.
270+ Reasons Why Kamala Harris Will Prevail
The opening monologue of tomorrow's Election Day PREVAIL podcast special
gregolear.substack.com