Political Discussion

wokeupnew said:
bsky.app

Taniel (@taniel.bsky.social)

A new Michigan poll by Mitchell (Tues-Sat): Harris up 49-48. (Last poll 5 days ago had Trump up 49/48.) But here's startling part: Pollster says in release he now thinks he is underweighting women, black voters, & Detroit, but choosing to not change weights used all year at this stage.
bsky.app bsky.app

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See they are already starting to explain what happened.

I’m happy about a glimmer of optimism going in tomorrow, but I continue to worry about the harm done to the country and its institutions the last 8 years (possibly since Ailes decided to blur the line between politics and the news)
 
Nee Lewman said:
All the talk of whether the polls are right or wrong this time, is it possible that they are all just hedging their bets? It’s one thing to correct for perceived issues from last time but even if it’s a weighted poll, there should still be more variance as the responses should vary. Are they just trying to be able to retrofit the data to the narrative of what happens post election. Not unlike CNN’s reporting last week that no matter which side wins, it was clear…
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Doubt it, there's just absolutely spoofing going on. After the Ann Seltzer poll a couple days ago, SoCal published a poll at the request of Red Eagle politics that had Trump +8. It was compounded and added to 538 in less than 24 hrs. Most of the data we have this year is total bullshit.

And the mainstream media outfits just say whatever makes them sound the most objective regardless of if it harms them directly or not.

You can look at actual votes cast in multiple states right now and get a better picture of where things stand than any poll.
 
Nee Lewman said:
See they are already starting to explain what happened.

I’m happy about a glimmer of optimism going in tomorrow, but I continue to worry about the harm done to the country and its institutions the last 8 years (possibly since Ailes decided to blur the line between politics and the news)
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News media needs to stop treating Trump and GOP as equals when they make insane, racist, bigoted, violent comments constantly. The Biden "garbage" comment was pushed by almost every news outlet trying to become another Comey Letter, but I don't think people are falling for it. Most in news like Trump and want him to win because he drives clicks/engagement and gets people buying newspapers.
 
wokeupnew said:
News media needs to stop treating Trump and GOP as equals when they make insane, racist, bigoted, violent comments constantly. The Biden "garbage" comment was pushed by almost every news outlet trying to become another Comey Letter, but I don't think people are falling for it. News media likes Trump and they want him to win.
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I read a story where the reporter was speaking to Puerto Ricans who are now voting for Kamala and they mistook Trump doing the bit with the garbage truck and MAGAs wearing garbage bags as yet another shot at Puerto Rico and not the Biden comment. It's one instance where misinformation is going to hurt Trump.
 
mdmost said:
I read a story where the reporter was speaking to Puerto Ricans who are now voting for Kamala and they mistook Trump doing the bit with the garbage truck and MAGAs wearing garbage bags as yet another shot at Puerto Rico and not the Biden comment. It's one instance where misinformation is going to hurt Trump.
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It was an incredibly dumb thing for him to do.

What exactly was he saying? Biden is trash and he’s taking them out? His supporters are garbage and he’s got them in the truck? Another dig a Puerto Rico? All just another chance to cosplay as a normal guy by pasting his name on a shiny new garbage truck?

It was like the Hannibal Lector speeches…. It’s kind of clear what he was trying to do but since it was ill conceived at best and not even remotely attempted to be explained… his cult ate it up and the rest of us are like “huh?”
 
Nee Lewman said:
All the talk of whether the polls are right or wrong this time, is it possible that they are all just hedging their bets? It’s one thing to correct for perceived issues from last time but even if it’s a weighted poll, there should still be more variance as the responses should vary. Are they just trying to be able to retrofit the data to the narrative of what happens post election. Not unlike CNN’s reporting last week that no matter which side wins, it was clear…
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Yes, it’s called “herding” and there is plenty of evidence to support this. Read this piece that @threesunrises posted by NYT forecaster Nate Cohn…
threesunrises said:
One of the Nates....



Gift link to article cited:
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TenderLovingKiller® said:
I think she wins with an EC total over 300. I am also beginning to think they she destroys him by the overall total. Maybe she wins with a slightly different path than Biden. Perhaps Harris wins NC and loses AZ maybe she picks off IA and loses GA. I think the margins in swing states will be close but she will win the majority of them once all the votes are counted.
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I think Trump is winning NV. I am also feeling confident that Harris wins WI after spending yesterday in Milwaukee and talking to people all day. Apparently the ground game there has been very strong and almost everyone I spoke to had already voted.

In the end, it's probably coming down to PA.
 
I find this not particulary well written but the general thought of " is trump trying to campaign to win the vote or just to overthrow the vote?" A question worth thinking about.
www.theguardian.com

What if Trump’s campaign is cover for a slow-motion coup? | Jan-Werner Müller

Even if Trump can’t really mobilize large numbers of people to the streets, just prolonging a sense of chaos might be enough
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Jan said:
I find this not particulary well written but the general thought of " is trump trying to campaign to win the vote or just to overthrow the vote?" A question worth thinking about.
www.theguardian.com

What if Trump’s campaign is cover for a slow-motion coup? | Jan-Werner Müller

Even if Trump can’t really mobilize large numbers of people to the streets, just prolonging a sense of chaos might be enough
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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“Who knows whether Trump can really mobilize large numbers of people on the streets”

He can’t.
 
DownIsTheNewUp said:
This podcast is always great but this episode is a must listen.



It also doesn't touch upon the data I've heard mentioned on a seperate episode that indicates 10-15% of men garner 90% of swipes from woman on dating apps. Which was from this episode a couple years ago-

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Really been enjoying Scott Galloway's take on the crisis young men are facing. He had a great episode on Rich Roll recently

 
Speaking of Gen Z men, I can for sure say I have noticed a sharp turn to the right in the last few years on Instagram.

The comment sections are telling.

Anytime something is posted of something stupid someone did, they flood the comment section with stuff like "Zero common sense, must be a Harris supporter" or "Must be a democrat".

Or when a female influencer makes a post about wanting to live the California Dream and can't wait to be back in California they flood the comments section about "Commiefornia" and tell the influencer they don't want to go there.
 
LiamGallaghersBucketHat said:
Well some people got it.

That Stein voter tho….lulz

Also that bloke who would have totally voted for Pete might vote for Trump…

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The plaid shirt lady thought she had some zingers and instead looked ridiculous. More rights under Trump? Okay. Also enjoyed the guy who said he doesn't know her policies when all of that is readily available on her website. I'll be happy for tomorrow to come and go so I don't have to hear from "undecided voters" for a while. Pete is so good at this though. I hope he has a place in her cabinet if she wins and if he chooses to do so.
 
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mdmost said:
The plaid shirt lady thought she had some zingers and instead looked ridiculous. More rights under Trump? Okay. Also enjoyed the guy who said he doesn't know her policies when all of that is readily available on her website. I'll be happy for tomorrow to come and go so I don't have to hear from "undecided voters" for a while.
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That’s been the rights argument the whole time - she is relentlessly attacking Trump and her plans are vague. Project much?
 
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