Political Discussion

threesunrises said:
My feeling is that he knows he's losing / lost. His internal numbers have to be bad, and with most of the main stream media being too pussyish (is that a word) to write about that, we are being peppered with bullshit polls. Polls mean nothing.

Watch clips from his rallies today (Aaron Rupar on twitter and Acyn post highlights) He's literally what he always projects - low energy, slurring words. He knows it's over. But, we can't be sure until after all votes are counted. And even then, we already know that he's going to claim fraud and file lawsuits disputing the results.

That said, I am very optimistic, I've felt for weeks that it will be a blowout, but I felt the same in 2016. We cannot get complacent. Urge everyone to go and vote. We need the turnout to lock this up.

If Iowa goes blue, then it's not outside the realm of possibility that Florida might flip. That might be asking for too much, but I do believe that it will be much closer than expected. All I want is enough of a lead so it can be called on Tues night. Prob won't happen, but a girl can dream.

I think we have it, but it ain't over til it's over.
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I feel better than I did a week ago but still don’t feel great. No one would ever accuse me of being an optimist but I’ve seen the worst in people enough to never be surprised.

 
Twentytwo said:
I feel better than I did a week ago but still don’t feel great. No one would ever accuse me of being an optimist but I’ve seen the worst in people enough to never be surprised.

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I think she wins with an EC total over 300. I am also beginning to think they she destroys him by the overall total. Maybe she wins with a slightly different path than Biden. Perhaps Harris wins NC and loses AZ maybe she picks off IA and loses GA. I think the margins in swing states will be close but she will win the majority of them once all the votes are counted.
 
hornobserver.com

Air France Suspends Red Sea Flights After Houthis Missle Attack

NAIROBI, Kenya (HORN OBSERVER) - Air France has suspended all flights over the Red Sea following a report from the crew of an aircraft who observed a "luminous object at high altitude" while flying near Sudan.
hornobserver.com hornobserver.com


airlive.net

BREAKING Air France suspends overflight of the Red Sea after a crew observed a luminous object at high altitude in the Sudan area

Air France #AF934 from Paris CDG to Antananarivo is declaring an emergency.
airlive.net airlive.net

A bunch of news agencies are now reporting that air traffic has been suspended over the Red Sea as missiles were spotted
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
I think she wins with an EC total over 300. I am also beginning to think they she destroys him by the overall total. Maybe she wins with a slightly different path than Biden. Perhaps Harris wins NC and loses AZ maybe she picks off IA and loses GA. I think the margins in swing states will be close but she will win the majority of them once all the votes are counted.
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What triggered this? That latest Iowa poll?
 
zdkaiser said:
What triggered this? That latest Iowa poll?
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Partially, but also a belief that forecasters have been peddling junk polling data for the entire election cycle. The polls were off the last few elections; 2016 and 2020 in Trumps favor, and now by weighting their polls in a way to ensure they don’t underestimate Trump a third time they are now overestimating him. Nate Cohen essentially admitted that this whole cycle has been herding to the middle. Not many outliers and the fact the sample size of most polls is so small that regardless of the trend there should be some outliers. There haven’t been any because when pollster are filtering there data in such a way to eliminate the variance.

But that is just the polling. I also believe that demographic shifts in age and race favor Democrats overall. Trump would have to grow his base of older white working class by an unrealistic amount just to contend with the the fact that with each year the Voting base becomes younger (a larger percentage of the vote is Millennial and Gen Z and less Boomer) and less white. He will do better with POC but not good enough to replace the ones he has lost.

In addition, due primarily to the Dobbs decision Women’s Rights has been become a huge motivating issue and in a race where the gender divide has never been greater, Trump bet on the wrong horse when he went all in on courting Male voters, particularly Gen Z men that have been a very unreliable voting block in elections past. Suburban women are much more likely to vote and will vote in a much higher numbers for Harris than Trump. The same prognosticators who are saying this race is a toss up also pushed the narrative that there would be a “red wave” in the 2022 midterms which didn’t occur, Dems outperformed the predictions across the country primarily due the Women Rights concerns. I think Trump will draw out more of his base than the midterms but not enough to win him the presidency.

Also, if the election is as close as the polling has suggested the deciding factor in close races is voter turnout and the Dems Get Out The Vote machine is working at unprecedented levels of efficiency. Volunteers knocked on millions of doors and made tens of millions of phone calls. Trump used up all of the RNC money to pay his legal bills and instead farmed out their Get Out The Vote operations to Charlie Kirk’s Christian Nationalist organization Turning Points USA and Elon Musks super pac neither group is coordinating and by all reports thus far their operations has been a clusterfuck. Neither has even ran this type of operation before and is lacking in experience to be effective.

The last thing is more of an overall vibe, it seems like after a decade of Trump’s bullshit, there’s a quiet majority of voters are just tired and want him to go away. They don’t wear hats or waive giant flags, they are just normal people that want to move on with their normal lives.

Kamala Harris isn’t Joe Biden and she isn’t Donald Trump and for most, that will be enough.
 
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I was watching a movie on Prime Video last night.

What surprised me was I kept seeing Commercials with Brian Williams. You know, the anchor of NBC Nightly News that NBC Fired...

Apparently Amazon / Prime is going to have live election coverage hosted by Brian Williams all evening and late into the night on. And they are heavily pushing it as the place to get minute by minute updates as election results come in.
 
RenegadeMonster said:
I was watching a movie on Prime Video last night.

What surprised me was I kept seeing Commercials with Brian Williams. You know, the anchor of NBC Nightly News that NBC Fired...

Apparently Amazon / Prime is going to have live election coverage hosted by Brian Williams all evening and late into the night on. And they are heavily pushing it as the place to get minute by minute updates as election results come in.
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It’s the lead ad banner on fire tv currently.
 
Watching the local news this morning here in MA, here is what I have to report on political ads.

  • I saw 2 Harris ads during a half hour period.
  • During this same half hour there were 10 ads for Trump
  • There was 1 ad for "Jesus". Wut :oops:
  • New Hampshire local election ads out number MA local ads 20 to 1.

The Harris ads focused on abortion rights. The Trump ads focused on taxes seniors more in social security taxes to fund medicare so medicare can pay for "illegals" medical care.

The only MA local ad I saw was by the republican running against Elizabeth Warren. His angle was Warren only points fingers while he gets things done.

The New Hampshire governor race is dominating the the New Hampshire ads. They are all attacking the democrat candidate for governor, claiming she supports imposing a sales tax and/or income tax in New Hampshire (New Hampshire currently has neither an income tax or sales tax). The one ad attacking the Republican candidate for governor was about how she helped enabled the opioid crisis and didn't prosecute any of those responsible for it.
 
Last nights episode of John Oliver was about Trump's business ventures, and the conflict of interest has he uses the presidency to enrich himself.

Warning, you will not be able to unsee this after watching John Oliver or viewing this spoiler:




I think the most important part of the episode came after the main story. John Oliver explained what the "undecided" movement is, and pleaded with them to vote for Harris instead of leaving the top of the ballot blank.

Muslim and Arb Americans are not happy with Harris at all with her policies related to Israel. While they don't want Trump to win, and secretly want Harris to win, as it's better for their agenda, they are not happy with Harris and want to send a message by not voting for her.

John Oliver basically said voting is the first and most important step towards bringing in change. While voting itself does not bring in change, it's the first step and from there Harris is the more favorable candidate to hear you case and more likely be swayed.
 
ayayrawn said:
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I thought Jon Stewart’s Weekly Show last week was very interesting as the guests laid out the difference in patriotism between the right and the left. For the right it is steeped in iconography and on the left it is about working to make it better. We should be critical of our leaders and ask them to do better and that was a big part of John Oliver last night as well.
 
All the talk of whether the polls are right or wrong this time, is it possible that they are all just hedging their bets? It’s one thing to correct for perceived issues from last time but even if it’s a weighted poll, there should still be more variance as the responses should vary. Are they just trying to be able to retrofit the data to the narrative of what happens post election. Not unlike CNN’s reporting last week that no matter which side wins, it was clear…
 
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