Political Discussion

jaycee said:
I've been thinking about the reasons for this eventuality for awhile. I don't have any real answers for myself and I don't agree with some of the thought in these opinion pieces, but one thing I keep coming back to, that is discussed in both, is the lack of traction Sanders gained in black communities, at least in the South and Midwest, and the fragile support from Midwestern Union Democrats , perhaps union workers elsewhere as well. I think "progressives" need to look at themselves in the mirror and understand how to be more inclusive in their mission and movement.

fivethirtyeight.com

Why Bernie Sanders Lost

There is a simple explanation for why Sen. Bernie Sanders, who officially suspended his presidential campaign on Wednesday, lost the Democratic nomination: Form…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com

www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Bernie Sanders Only Had Eyes for One Wing of the Democratic Party (Published 2020)

But actually there are three, which helps explain why he had to drop out of the race on Wednesday.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Biden blows. I hope enough people will turn-out to get Trump out of office but I don't have much faith that people will do so. It's difficult to continue to be a part of a country and a system that is so fundamentally flawed and corrupt, even if it is better than some other places.

I hope more people that really care about human well-being run for office and the people that believe in well-being policies will continue to do their best to implement and demand change at the community level.
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A lot of what I heard is people like what they know. What is real. They don't know how progressive changes to policies will affect them. To them its all wishes and not reality. They rather have what they know to be true and always there for them over the unknown.

Bernie had no support from unions. What Bernie was proposing for them was unknown hopes and dreams. Union workers didn't think for a second what Bernie was promising would actually pass. They feared a half way measure that reduced their benefits and cost them more. They want to keep their health insurance because they have the best health insurance there is to offer in this country. And many unions have talked the companies into paying for most of the premiums. Some even have their premiums paid for 100% by their company.

So if medicare for all came in, many who are in a union would be paying more. And by how much they don't know. And if they lose their health insurance there is no guarantee medicare for all would be what Bernie promises. And what does get passed will likely be stripped down the next time control of the government flips red.

As for the African American vote, it wasn't that they weren't supportive over Bernie's ideas. From what I have heard it's because Bidden was Obama's Vice President. They loved Obama. And that had more sway on their vote than any other factors.
 
RenegadeMonster said:
A lot of what I heard is people like what they know. What is real. They don't know how progressive changes to policies will affect them. To them its all wishes and not reality. They rather have what they know to be true and always there for them over the unknown.

Bernie had no support from unions. What Bernie was proposing for them was unknown hopes and dreams. Union workers didn't think for a second what Bernie was promising would actually pass. They feared a half way measure that reduced their benefits and cost them more. They want to keep their health insurance because they have the best health insurance there is to offer in this country. And many unions have talked the companies into paying for most of the premiums. Some even have their premiums paid for 100% by their company.

So if medicare for all came in, many who are in a union would be paying more. And by how much they don't know. And if they lose their health insurance there is no guarantee medicare for all would be what Bernie promises. And what does get passed will likely be stripped down the next time control of the government flips red.

As for the African American vote, it wasn't that they weren't supportive over Bernie's ideas. From what I have heard it's because Bidden was Obama's Vice President. They loved Obama. And that had more sway on their vote than any other factors.
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There are a number of ideas I disagree with here, but it mainly boils down to an overarching theme to narratives like these that basically is saying that these groups don't fully understand the progressive policies, or the narrative of the Sanders campaign, or what is good for them and the country. That thinking stems from a kind-of educated elitism that has plagued social ideals / policies forever... it's plagued the democratic party as a whole too.

It also ignores that progressive campaigns have failed to engage some groups who their policies are supposed to benefit. To me if your message isn't clear to the people your message is about then there is a problem with how you're delivering your message or the message itself.
 
Indymisanthrope said:
There may be some truth to this but identifying it as the sole or even the primary motivator seems too reductive to me. African American voters deserve more respect as the sophisticated and complex voting bloc that they are than they have been given by conventional wisdom.
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I agree with you, but I have heard it from a lot of people, and not just African Americans, so I don't think it should be dismissed purely as a disrespectful attack. African Americans shouldn't be singled out though.

I think what we sometimes forget is that the majority of American voters, much less Americans in general, spend almost no time thinking about politics past wanting their party to win. It has long been established that simple name recognition has an undue impact on election results. Add to that name recognition an association with a president that was popular with Democrats and it is even more influential. I personally don't think it is disrespectful to state that some people don't think about it any harder than that. Sad state of affairs, sure, but I don't blame them when it is the state of our society.
 
dhodo said:
I agree with you, but I have heard it from a lot of people, and not just African Americans, so I don't think it should be dismissed purely as a disrespectful attack. African Americans shouldn't be singled out though.

I think what we sometimes forget is that the majority of American voters, much less Americans in general, spend almost no time thinking about politics past wanting their party to win. It has long been established that simple name recognition has an undue impact on election results. Add to that name recognition an association with a president that was popular with Democrats and it is even more influential. I personally don't think it is disrespectful to state that some people don't think about it any harder than that. Sad state of affairs, sure, but I don't blame them when it is the state of our society.
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That was essentially what I was referring too. And I have heard from many different sources and view points that this is the leading theory.

I guess I didn't get into enough and focused too much on unions.

It does make me wonder though why everywhere I have heard this is always using the African American vote as an example when referring to Joe Biden.
 
Do we know that Biden is going to lose vs. Trump though? I checked-out of following primary politics after Super Tuesday, but I've seen polls in head to head matchups where Biden is beating Trump about the same if not more than Bernie. I know Biden is terrible, but I don't think Biden vs. Trump in the general immediately means "Congrats on another 4 years Trump!". I'm seeing a lot of defeatism from friends on social media with that stance.


EDIT: polls - RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html
 
wokeupnew said:
Do we know that Biden is going to lose vs. Trump though? I checked-out of following primary politics after Super Tuesday, but I've seen polls in head to head matchups where Biden is beating Trump about the same if not more than Bernie. I know Biden is terrible, but I don't think Biden vs. Trump in the general immediately means "Congrats on another 4 years Trump!". I'm seeing a lot of defeatism from friends on social media with that stance.


EDIT: polls - RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
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1 poll predicted a Trump win in 2016.
 
Dtknuckles said:
This attitude does not promote any kind of self assessment that would lead to improved performance in later campaigns.
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I mean yeah I get that, I'm just pretty bummed. However, the problem is I've also seen a good chunk of people responding with "I won't vote for Biden or Trump." I feel like this move is only splitting Dems even further, and going to lead to an eventual Trump win due to it. Are there any polls of Biden v Trump that could shed some light on who has more support?
 
tonythegamer said:
I mean yeah I get that, I'm just pretty bummed. However, the problem is I've also seen a good chunk of people responding with "I won't vote for Biden or Trump." I feel like this move is only splitting Dems even further, and going to lead to an eventual Trump win due to it. Are there any polls of Biden v Trump that could shed some light on who has more support?
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There was a whole bunch of Clinton supporters that swore up & down initially that they would vote for McCain over Obama in 2008 and after a few months most came around. I am sure Biden will hold on to Sanders with one hand and Obama in his other during as the general rolls on which should help the party heal. The biggest issue will be the far Left publications (Jacobin, TYT, Chapo, The Intercept, etc...) who will likely continue to rail against Biden during the general. They are small group but very influential on social media.
 
My Facebook feed is at least half #NeverBiden right now.... I wrote this up in response:

It was the right move for Bernie to drop out. He is trying to unify the party. And yes I'm voting for Biden.

But I am also sad. And angry. It's frustrating that we again passed up a man with integrity and demonstrable empathy for a politician who has made a career out of selling out the American people to the highest bidder. It's disheartening that Warren prioritized her career over the progressive movement once it was clear she was the underdog. And it was especially infuriating, though predictable, that the media did everything they could to undermine his momentum, raise doubts in regards to his electability and to undermine his character.

Bernie has repeatedly been on the right side of history even when it was politically disadvantageous to do so. In contrast, Biden has a long history of not only making the wrong decision- but being on the front lines of the fight to implement that decision.

It is telling that Bernie spent most of his time post-2016 fighting the most powerful of corporations in the world head-on, stumping for underdog candidates, serving as an ally to unions / worker movements and sitting in on meetings with grassroots organizations like Sunrise and BLM. What makes Bernie so special, so close to my heart is that he is an activist, not a politician.

The coronavirus is laying bare how broken American capitalism is. Medicare for all, paid sick leave, basic social safety nets and a prioritization of the worker instead of the stock market-- these are things that most of Europe, Canada, New Zealand and Australia view as common sense. But years of cold war propaganda and corporate news have brainwashed the older portions of our country into worshiping rugged individualism, privatization and deregulation even when those ideologies are directly correlated to our country's biggest problems.

Bernie helped shift that paradigm. I am proud to have poured 100's of hours into his two campaigns. I'm proud to have voted for him twice. I'm proud of the organizations like Ground Game LA and Justice Democrats that spawned out of his 2016 campaign and are making a very real impact on the modern political landscape. I'm proud of the hundreds of activists that I've gotten to know over the past 5 years.

All of that said, Bernie did not run a perfect campaign. In fact, he made several, very key, blunders post-Nevada. Among those were not pivoting to build a bridge towards voters who consider being a Democrat a core part of their identity and not angling for endorsements from key leaders like Jesse Jackson (came too late) or James Clyburn. He is not blameless in all of this. And youth turnout was inarguabley disappointing even if voter suppression played a key role in that.

Trump NEEDS to go. Climate change, the Supreme Court and Trump's authoritarian tendencies should have everyone absolutely terrified of the man getting a 2nd term. And unlike Clinton, Biden seems like he may be willing to move to the left if the pressure is applied in the right way. He has already moved to the left on the issue of student debt, and I find it telling that many of the same people who had clear animosity towards Hillary seem to like Joe even if they don't see eye to eye with him on a lot of things.

But- to barrow from my brother:

"Democrats need to understand that they can not take the progressive vote for granted. Bernie Sanders followers don’t owe the Democratic Party ANYTHING! If Biden and the Democratic Party are going to beat Trump they are going to need the nearly 1 and 3 democratic leaning voters that identify as progressive. As such, Biden’s upcoming decisions are going to be vital.

1. His V.P pick better be a progressive female - Stacy Abrams, Elizabeth Warren (someone in this mold)
2. He better move to the left on some of his policies - Climate Change, Health Care being most notable.
3. Don’t be rude or dismissive to Bernie’s supporters like Hilary was.

If Biden and the Democratic Party fail to do these things it will be at their own peril. It won’t be Bernie or his supporters fault. It won’t be Russia’s fault, It won’t be because of all the racists in the country. It will be because the Democratic Establishment and it's voters are out of touch with the needs of the working class of this country".

Okay, tangent over.
 
Oh good. More wild generalizations and re-hashing of a convo we've had numerous times.

Many of those never-Biden types would have voted for Warren. Before her moment of accusation, polling showed that the vast majority of Bernie supporters would be enthusiastic with Warren as a secondary option that that roughly 85% of his supporters would vote for her versus Trump. Those same polls also showed that only 55% (or so) would vote for "any" Democratic nominee. In other words, most Bernie or busters were simply progressive or bust. And it's been that way from the very beginning. Which is EXACTLY why people-- even those of us who had donated to her campaign-- were so frustrated by her refusal to drop out and endorse and so alarmed by the lack of coalescing behind one progressive.

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Meanwhile, my parents initially behind Bernie until they became convinced that a bunch of their fellow white suburbanites would refuse to vote for him due to veiled threats along those lines.
 
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