Political Discussion

How are in person ballots breaking in AZ? Particularly in Maricopa. That’s really the key.

Nate Cohn has been saying Biden should hold, but nobody is explaining why they think so.
 
So on the cautious route, if we count Michigan but not Arizona, it's 253-214, Biden needs PA or two of: NC, GA, NV, or AZ to get to 270 (ignoring Alaska as the 3 only really comes into play in some very weird turnout). If you take Arizona for Biden, he just needs one of NV, PA, NC, or GA (though just Nevada puts it WAY too close to faithless elector range for my taste).
 
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