Political Discussion

Skalap said:
Biden is leading in Nevada by 1,8% and in Arizona by 1%. It would give Bide the 17 votes he needs to win. Why aren't media calling yet?
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AZ looks like it will be very close. We should have a better idea around 11 EST.

Not sure why they aren't calling NV, but it wouldn't give him the win alone, so maybe they figure they may as well wait. They are very slow at counting there for some reason.
 
Skalap said:
Biden is leading in Nevada by 1,8% and in Arizona by 1%. It would give Biden the 17 votes he needs to win. Why aren't media calling yet?
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Arizona is going to continue to tighten towards Trump. He's not making enough inroads so far though, so he'll likely be shy. There are too many votes to be counted to be certain.

Nevada should be called because what's left is Vegas and it's heavily Biden.

Pennsylvania should be called too. Biden will expand his lead further with the rest of the mail-ins. The only question I think is they don't know exactly what the provisionals look like. All indications suggest that they look like each county's current totals so they wouldn't change anything - in fact there are more in democratic counties, so it should expand Biden's lead more. I think once he builds a lead above 40,000 they'll call it. I think this one gets called first, sometime today.
 
Turbo said:
Arizona is going to continue to tighten towards Trump. He's not making enough inroads so far though, so he'll likely be shy. There are too many votes to be counted to be certain.

Nevada should be called because what's left is Vegas and it's heavily Biden.

Pennsylvania should be called too. Biden will expand his lead further with the rest of the mail-ins. The only question I think is they don't know exactly what the provisionals look like. All indications suggest that they look like each county's current totals so they wouldn't change anything - in fact there are more in democratic counties, so it should expand Biden's lead more. I think once he builds a lead above 40,000 they'll call it. I think this one gets called first, sometime today.
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Yep.

If anyone likes more data, like me, here's some numbers:

AZ: Trump has been averaging around 54% lately. Needs over 57% to win. Tight!

NV: Trump averaging around 40%. Needs to flip to 60% of the rest to win. Doesn't seem anyone thinks this is likely so that's why I'm not sure why it isn't called.

PA: Trump averaging below 30%. Needs over 60% to win. Like @Turbo said, consensus seems to be that they are waiting until the margin is out of recount range of 0.5%. That isn't definite though.

Disclaimer: I think the least sure thing in those numbers is estimated votes remaining, as those sometimes jump around significantly, so those "need to win" percentages can shift. Also those %s are just based on the last few calculations of the last 30k votes from a site I've used. Haven't bothered to calculate a longer %.
 
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dhodo said:
Yep.

If anyone likes more data, like me, here's some numbers:

AZ: Trump has been averaging around 54% lately. Needs over 57% to win. Tight!

NV: Trump averaging around 40%. Needs to flip to 60% of the rest to win. Doesn't seem anyone thinks this is likely so that's why I'm not sure why it isn't called.

PA: Trump averaging below 30%. Needs over 60% to win. Like @Turbo said, consensus seems to be that they are waiting until the margin is out of recount range of 0.5%. That isn't definite though.

Disclaimer: I think the least sure thing in those numbers is estimated votes remaining, as those sometimes jump around significantly, so those "need to win" percentages can shift.
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Exactly. I'm pretty sure the media will start calling it once Pittsburgh and Philly release their batches today. Those should expand Biden above 40,000 and possibly 50,000. At that point, I think Trump runs out of votes even including provisionals.
 
Turbo said:
Exactly. I'm pretty sure the media will start calling it once Pittsburgh and Philly release their batches today. Those should expand Biden above 40,000 and possibly 50,000. At that point, I think Trump runs out of votes even including provisionals.
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Agreed. I really hope we get there today. I have seen that Allegheny said they "could begin reporting votes by late morning or early afternoon." Hopefully that's more accurate than some estimates on reporting times we've seen.
 
dhodo said:
AZ looks like it will be very close. We should have a better idea around 11 EST.

Not sure why they aren't calling NV, but it wouldn't give him the win alone, so maybe they figure they may as well wait. They are very slow at counting there for some reason.
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I think NV has a provisional ballot situation like PA. They want to see how those lean before they make any call.
 
RenegadeMonster said:
Just notice they took that 1 electoral college vote for Trump in Maine back away.

HAHA
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Someone will have to explain to me how these split EC states work.

I thought each congressional district was 1 point, and then the winner of the state adds 2.

Right now, the democrats are winning both congressional districts in Maine by wide margins. Was there that many split tickets in ME-1?
 
Turbo said:
Someone will have to explain to me how these split EC states work.

I thought each congressional district was 1 point, and then the winner of the state adds 2.

Right now, the democrats are winning both congressional districts in Maine by wide margins. Was there that many split tickets in ME-1?
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Two states have split electoral votes - Nebraska and Maine. They give two each to the overall winner of the state. Then each congressional district also awards an electoral vote to the winner of that district's popular vote. It's called the Congressional District Method. Any state could do this, but only these two have elected to do so.

I see you have follow up questions regarding what is specifically going on in those districts w/ Maine - someone who has been following those numbers more closely would need to chime in with what's going on there.
 
Lord Diaper Baby said:
Two states have split electoral votes - Nebraska and Maine. They give two each to the overall winner of the state. Then each congressional district also awards an electoral vote to the winner of that district's popular vote. It's called the Congressional District Method. Any state could do this, but only these two have elected to do so.
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Cheers, I understood it right then. So I guess a lot of people voted for Trump and Collins but chose the democrat for congress then.
 
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