Political Discussion

I really wish there was more support for Socialism.

We really need more of it to a degree to solve the problems Capitalism have created.

There is also an American-specific problem where we fail to acknowledge that the basic wealth that this country is founded on is not the innovation that laissez-faire economics contends it creates, but the labor of black and brown bodies... the labor of poor bodies. That labor has created large tailwinds for some and smaller tailwinds for others and no tailwinds for those that it exploits.

The consolidation of power (wealth, social, and political capital) that our democracy has failed to protect us against because of it's acceptance of certain tenets of capitalism is another associated foundational problem.

Societies that value human life 1st, innovation 2nd, and wealth generation 3rd are ones where more people have more ability to live longer happier lives.

The policies that Warren and Sanders are touting would be center-left in many countries. In America, where our pledge of allegiance to the flag implies a pledge of allegiance to the people who use their tailwind and wealth to consolidate power, it (social principles) can easily seem radical.
 
So who drops out after SC?

Biden is expected to win, but I think it'll be closer than polling suggests. Polls skew much older because most are landline voters only.

Steyer is also predicted to well which may cause him to stay in the race until after Super Tuesday. I think Biden is expecting a win in SC to help propel him to perform better on Super Tuesday, but a lot of states CA/TX have already more than half of their votes counted early. Also Biden has not been working those states at all. Bernie has been all over CA/TX since two weeks ago.

I think Pete/Amy will probably hold on to Iowa/NH performances longer than they should, maybe even after Super Tuesday. Pete is still in the realm of consciousness for all Primaries even if he does not look poised to do well on Super Tuesday.

So that leaves Warren who unfortunately with a lot of voters she's been very alienating. I really do like her as a second choice and would make a good running mate to Bernie if she bit the bullet and apologized for her comments. But if Bernie is the nominee I think he'd pick someone that is not from a state so close to VT.

After ST I think Warren and one of Pete or Amy (probably Amy) drops out. Also Steyer probably drops out.

Bloomberg is a weird case, he might drop out and endorse Biden. I also think that polling has been over-reporting his numbers. There's just no way he had 15%~ of voters after coming into the race at the last second. Also his debate performances have been tragic for his campaign.

Or! since basically everyone wants to stop Bernie maybe they'll all stay in and hope for a contested convention and undermine the will of the voters. Bernie will have the most votes and delegates after the primary voting is over. But will he have the outright majority? It would be an absolutely disaster if the DNC chose Biden or whoever. The Bernie voters who are not "vote blue no matter who" would be too much of a loss and whoever the DNC chooses will 100% lose to Trump.
 
Gallup kinda polled about this earlier this month
How do you measure a narrative? Polling?
BUT any survey data is less than ideal and some of it is downright not useful depending on the questions and the population surveyed.

I can only speak form my experience and opinions. I'm also assuming that there is good reason that the line of attack on social principles and Bernie specifically, is about stoking these fears.

As far as my experience. I've been called a communist more times than I care to count because I advocate for things like social medicine, renters rights, and disbarment of the police union. Many times people are joking but it's the kind-of joking where they 3/4 of the way mean it.


Yea i didn't comb through and look at the questions, but that is always important. When you use a big concept word like Socialism and Atheist nuance is lost. Polling specific policies are more useful.
 
So who drops out after SC?

Biden is expected to win, but I think it'll be closer than polling suggests. Polls skew much older because most are landline voters only.

Steyer is also predicted to well which may cause him to stay in the race until after Super Tuesday. I think Biden is expecting a win in SC to help propel him to perform better on Super Tuesday, but a lot of states CA/TX have already more than half of their votes counted early. Also Biden has not been working those states at all. Bernie has been all over CA/TX since two weeks ago.

I think Pete/Amy will probably hold on to Iowa/NH performances longer than they should, maybe even after Super Tuesday. Pete is still in the realm of consciousness for all Primaries even if he does not look poised to do well on Super Tuesday.

So that leaves Warren who unfortunately with a lot of voters she's been very alienating. I really do like her as a second choice and would make a good running mate to Bernie if she bit the bullet and apologized for her comments. But if Bernie is the nominee I think he'd pick someone that is not from a state so close to VT.

After ST I think Warren and one of Pete or Amy (probably Amy) drops out. Also Steyer probably drops out.

Bloomberg is a weird case, he might drop out and endorse Biden. I also think that polling has been over-reporting his numbers. There's just no way he had 15%~ of voters after coming into the race at the last second. Also his debate performances have been tragic for his campaign.

Or! since basically everyone wants to stop Bernie maybe they'll all stay in and hope for a contested convention and undermine the will of the voters. Bernie will have the most votes and delegates after the primary voting is over. But will he have the outright majority? It would be an absolutely disaster if the DNC chose Biden or whoever. The Bernie voters who are not "vote blue no matter who" would be too much of a loss and whoever the DNC chooses will 100% lose to Trump.
I don’t think anybody drops after South Carolina. My guess is even those that do poorly will wait until after Super Tuesday to make it official. Unfortunately the two most likely to drop out after Super Tuesday will be Klobachar and Warren. I think their resource will dry up pretty quickly if they do not do something unexpected. I expect Pete and Biden to stick for a while longer to see if one of them can become the non-billionaire alternative to Bernie.
 
Why do they keep saying history shows who ever wins South Carolina always wins the nomination.

I have heard people say Joe Biden is currently leading and if he wins South Carolina history shows he will win the nomination. If he doesn't win, his campaign is as good as over.
 
Why do they keep saying history shows who ever wins South Carolina always wins the nomination.

I have heard people say Joe Biden is currently leading and if he wins South Carolina history shows he will win the nomination. If he doesn't win, his campaign is as good as over.
Based strictly on past results, it appears that while not perfect; in the Democratic Primary, South Carolina has done a better job predicting the eventual nominee than either Iowa or New Hampshire have, especially recently.

If this was the GOP primary on the other hand, SC has been amazingly perfect...
 
So who drops out after SC?

Bloomberg is a weird case, he might drop out and endorse Biden. I also think that polling has been over-reporting his numbers. There's just no way he had 15%~ of voters after coming into the race at the last second. Also his debate performances have been tragic for his campaign.

I live in California and I receive at least 3-5 pieces of mail from Bloomberg every damn day. Yesterday I got a flyer saying both the mayors of San Francisco and San Jose are voting for him...I have a feeling he might do well in our state considering how polarizing Bernie is for Democrats on the fringe.
 

"This unauthorized use of President Obama's name, image, likeness, voice and book passage is clearly intended to mislead the target audience of the ad into believing that the passage from the audiobook is a statement that was made by President Barack Obama during his presidency, when it was in fact made by a barber in a completely different context more than 20 years ago," stated the letter written by Patchen M. Haggerty.
 
I live in California and I receive at least 3-5 pieces of mail from Bloomberg every damn day. Yesterday I got a flyer saying both the mayors of San Francisco and San Jose are voting for him...I have a feeling he might do well in our state considering how polarizing Bernie is for Democrats on the fringe.


I saw on 538 that Bernie has I think more than a 80% chance of winning CA.
 
I don’t doubt that he’ll win but I think Bloomberg has a chance to come in second, much to the chagrin of Warren fans like myself
I believe the big number is 15% of the vote that is the threshold you have to reach to acquire a portion of the delegates.
 
Hey @jaycee your post on the previous page is some awesome stuff. I’m super busy today with work but wanted to say

a) the reason the Pete moment was relevant to me was because Sanders had spent the previous portion of the debate with his hand raised while everyone lobbed attacks designed to question his electability. I’m ALL for that happening. It NEEDS to happen before Trump. Especially because I’m realizing that the stock market gains (which has not benefited the majority of my generation and hasnot resulted in wage increases) have pacified a portion of your section of the country that was on board with Sanders in 16’.

That said, the moderation was atrocious and this was one of Sanders first real opportunities to respond... and then Pete just blabbered over him. When it happened a couple other times, it started to feel very intentional.

B) You are absolutely right that younger people don’t give a fuck about the Castro thing. If anything we see it as hypocritical considering how many Dems are in bed with countries like Saudi Arabia. And a lot of us will straight up stay home if Bloomberg is the nom or they take it from Sanders at the convention. The later is actually scarier because it would potentially result in a TON of young people becoming permanent non-voters.

Here is a study FB fed me during my lunch. I hate that the author intentionally conflates communism with socialism but what really matters is the data. And I promise is it’s pretty similar among people 30-38 as we are the ones that actually came of age among the recession.


Its really unfortunate that Warren didn’t gain more momentum with the 45+ crowd.
 
One other thing— it seems to me (based off people I know, what I see on places like r/politics, and the convos I have while door knocking), that the way the 65+ crowd feels about socialism is sort of how the under 35 crowd feels about money in politics. Which is why Warren / Sanders maintain the majority of our support.

I don’t think that gap is bridgable (as evidenced by Bloomberg’s rise), so the question is... which group is less likely to stay home if they don’t like the nominee.


Also, this Chris Hayes piece is pretty solid:

 
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the way the 65+ crowd feels about socialism is sort of how the under 35 crowd feels about money in politics.
🤔

One of these things is understandable that they’d have that view point given everything they’ve experienced, but still not an accurate viewpoint. The other is bad all around.

edit: I don’t mean to imply that you support money in politics. If you do... well...
 
Latest polling from South Carolina shows Biden's lead has widely expanded over Bernie Sanders.

Even worse, there is a chance that Michael Bloomberg could come in second.

Joe Biden is at 36%. Bernie at 16% in second place. And then the next 4 candidates are all around 13%.
 
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Latest polling from South Carolina shows Biden's lead has widely expanded over Bernie Sanders.

Even worse, there is a chance that Michael Bloomberg could come in second.

Joe Biden is at 36%. Bernie at 16% in second place. And then the next 4 candidates are all around 13%.

Another one just dropped that has Bernie only 4 pts back. The pollster you mentioned also has been way off thus far. Had Biden winning Iowa and NH. Believe they are landline based.

I’ll be dumbfounded if Bernie wins SC. But I’m hopping he can keep it under 10 points while hitting the 15% threshold. Lot of this will depend on Steyer I think.
 
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Long post incoming. TLDR: kid learns about local politics with a little moment of civic engagement gone awry.


My stepdaughter goes to an IB school, and one of the requirements is that 8th graders have to complete a "Community Project" that involves an act of direct engagement, public advocacy, or research about a public policy issue. Our kid teamed up with a couple of other girls to tackle issues related to the wage gap. They have a teacher who recently had a baby, and they happened to discover that this teacher had been saving up sick time over the last two years in order to take a paid maternity leave, which is not a benefit that our school system offers. The girls were genuinely pretty horrified to learn that even the physical recovery from childbirth is not a covered event separate from regular sick time, so they decided to make it the focus of their project. They learned through additional research that the lack of this benefit is frequently cited by young teachers as a reason for leaving the district, or the profession altogether, and that on average it costs the school district $50,000 to replace a teacher. Last night they attended the school board meeting with the intention of making a 3 minute public comment suggesting what they thought was a reasonable pitch: a 2-week paid leave for new mothers. 2 weeks. That was the most they thought they could argue for. (BTW they recognized that family leave > maternity leave but decided that since the focus of their work was the gender wage gap that they would restrict their request to women only.)

Anyway, they got to the meeting and it turns out that it was one of the most highly attended school board meetings ever, as the district is in the middle of trying to regain oversight of a state-controlled school whose administration was turned over to a charter company after poor performance years. The charter company is refusing to comply with any of the district's requests about, well, anything. The district plans to re-open the school *after* closing it for one full school year. As you might imagine, the families at that school are freaking out a little because no one seems to know what's going on and the charter company has essentially gone radio silent.

Oh, AND the district is in the middle of changing bus vendors without any input from the drivers' union. The savings derived from the change, expected to be in the range of a few million, are expected to come largely from cuts to drivers' benefits. The drivers staged a sick-out this morning, on a scale large enough to cause the district to cancel all busing for all schools, district-wide.

So tensions are high, attendance is high, and suddenly more people want to utilize public comment time than ever before, so our girls, who have been prepping for three minutes, are now told they will have 90 seconds. My kid, who is the third speaker in her group, ends up having time only to say "thank you" before their time is up.

On the way home, she cried. "My first chance to get to speak up for women's rights and all I got the chance to say was 'thank you.' They didn't even let me speak."

It gave us an opportunity to talk a little bit about why the other people had shown up in such large numbers. Some kids' educations are being tossed around by the whims of bureaucrats and a private business because of the arbitrary mess that has been made of standardized testing and privatization agendas. It's also no coincidence that this school is mostly attended by minority students from poorer neighborhoods. Meanwhile, bus drivers are demonstrating the power of organized labor, which is good, and yet families who rely on that transportation will suffer for it. And meanwhile, 3 kids with good intentions showed up in an effort to fulfill the requirements of their district-mandated assignment, and were unable to complete it BECAUSE OF that same district's messy issues.

It's a tough lesson for a kid, and even a tough thing for an adult to untangle when you see such a confluence of problems all at once. This is one school district in one county of one state. If this one institution can have so many problems, it can seem impossible to fix them at a larger scale. Seeing how power is leveraged in different ways, how opposing parties must negotiate, how significant problems get ignored in favor of others, it's all valuable information, but certainly a little disheartening when it's your first experience.

Anyway -- the girls are now working on writing a letter to the editor of the city paper as their next step. As one of them said, "If the school board doesn't have time to listen, then we'll just tell the whole city." I'm too cynical to think it will make much of a dent (not to mention that they understandably don't know the first thing about labor contract negotiations), but I respect the defiant attitude.
is an IB school like a Charter School?
 
IB stands for International Baccalaureate. It's basically a modified curriculum and teaching method based on ideas of global citizenry and inquiry-based learning. This school in particular is part of the public school district, but is part of the district's "innovation schools" model, in that it is labeled as a "Center for Inquiry" school that happens to use the IB curriculum. Totally simple and straightforward, right? It's sort of like a subset of magnet schools within the school district; students who live close to it go there automatically, but other students can also get in if they want to participate in this curriculum. In this district there are currently, I think, 4 IB elementary/middle schools that feed into 3 high schools that offer the IB diploma track (as well as conventional diploma tracks).

Short version, it's a little complicated, but my understanding is that the IB program is simply a curriculum that any school, public/private/charter/otherwise can adopt. I believe it's generally seen as being academically rigorous, sort of equivalent to the concept of AP courses, but without the focus on exams/college credits.
Gotcha. I've never heard of IB before but I'm familiar with Magnet Schools. I had thought that maybe your post was about a Charter School with the cuts.
 
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