Neverending Covid-19 Coronavirus

nolalady said:
Did you see this one about GA?
www.businessinsider.com

Georgia reported over 1,000 new coronavirus cases on the same day its governor lifted the stay-at-home order for most residents

Gov. Brian Kemp lifted the shelter-in-place order for most of the state's 10.6 million residents on Friday, despite rising case numbers.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com

We're just begging for a second wave.
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As I understand it, Georgia hasn't finished a first wave. Those 1000 new cases aren't from the reopening of businesses--those folks were infected 2-14 days ago. There will certainly be a second wave, but people seem determined to make the first one worse than it needs to be.
High Rant District said:
I don't see any elderly people in that line. Younger folks feel more invincible, and with this virus, they may be (yes, there are exceptions for those with underlying conditions). Herd immunity is an option as well.

Spoken like a totalitarian. We have freedoms in this country. Hopefully people exercise those freedoms in a responsible manner.

I suspect you aren't seeing this involve elderly people or people with underlying medical conditions - the people most vulnerable to this virus. Also, are you certain that the takeout you ordered wasn't prepared or transported by someone who has the virus? Why aren't you acting in a safe manner? Why are you hiring someone to bring you food who may have just delivered to someone else who may have the virus? Don't you think this puts the delivery person at risk? Why are you being so irresponsible??? :LOL:

Anyway, these anecdotal incidences are a tiny fraction of the population. Most people are making better (IMO) decisions for themselves.
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I think it's important to note that a huge portion of the population has "underlying conditions," many of whom have no idea. Heart disease and being pre-diabetic are both frequently completely unknown until later, but those conditions are there in 30- and 40-somethings. Folks love dismissing the danger as being primarily limited to the "vulnerable," without recognizing how vulnerable they may actually be.

And what do you mean by "herd immunity is an option"? An option for whom? So far we don't know if contracting and recovering from the virus confers immunity. There have certainly been documented cases of re-infection. Pandemic doesn't automatically equal herd immunity. We never developed herd immunity to Small Pox or Polio or even Measles without vaccines. And if it does, that's a huge number of folks who need to contract it--and as Indy points out, we don't even know the long-term consequences of being even an asymptomatic carrier.

But I do agree that most of the population is making better choices. Something like 80% of people support self-isolating and social distancing. Unfortunately even they need to get out and shop for food. Some have to work (like those of us in food production and distribution, and obviously medical and hospital personnel), and those folks making bad choices have the potential to harm all of us.
 
GritNGlitter said:
As I understand it, Georgia hasn't finished a first wave. Those 1000 new cases aren't from the reopening of businesses--those folks were infected 2-14 days ago. There will certainly be a second wave, but people seem determined to make the first one worse than it needs to be.

I think it's important to note that a huge portion of the population has "underlying conditions," many of whom have no idea. Heart disease and being pre-diabetic are both frequently completely unknown until later, but those conditions are there in 30- and 40-somethings. Folks love dismissing the danger as being primarily limited to the "vulnerable," without recognizing how vulnerable they may actually be.

And what do you mean by "herd immunity is an option"? An option for whom? So far we don't know if contracting and recovering from the virus confers immunity. There have certainly been documented cases of re-infection. Pandemic doesn't automatically equal herd immunity. We never developed herd immunity to Small Pox or Polio or even Measles without vaccines. And if it does, that's a huge number of folks who need to contract it--and as Indy points out, we don't even know the long-term consequences of being even an asymptomatic carrier.

But I do agree that most of the population is making better choices. Something like 80% of people support self-isolating and social distancing. Unfortunately even they need to get out and shop for food. Some have to work (like those of us in food production and distribution, and obviously medical and hospital personnel), and those folks making bad choices have the potential to harm all of us.
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One of the interesting facts I have seen come out of MA is a breakdown of hardest hit communities when it comes to deaths.

No, it's not the communities with the most elderly or where COVID-19 got into nursing homes.

It's communities that have air pollution problems. Communities that have bad air quality are seeing the highest rates in deaths and younger deaths on average.
 
More about the inaccuracy of antibody tests. The FDA is requiring accuracy data from manufacturers since a scientific analyses of the tests has only found 4 of 14 were decently accurate.

www.nytimes.com

F.D.A. Orders Companies to Submit Antibody Test Data (Published 2020)

The agency had come under fire from members of Congress and other groups for allowing dozens of wildly inaccurate tests to proliferate without oversight.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
www.cnn.com

Key coronavirus model will revise projections to nearly 135,000 US deaths

The US coronavirus outbreak has altered daily life in almost every way. Here's the latest updates on US Covid-19 cases, deaths, the lockdown, the government response, unemployment and more.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning. A press release from IHME said the full set of new projections will be released later this afternoon.
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Going up to ~135,000 deaths by August vs. 72,433 in the April 29th run.
 
GritNGlitter said:
As I understand it, Georgia hasn't finished a first wave. Those 1000 new cases aren't from the reopening of businesses--those folks were infected 2-14 days ago. There will certainly be a second wave, but people seem determined to make the first one worse than it needs to be.

I think it's important to note that a huge portion of the population has "underlying conditions," many of whom have no idea. Heart disease and being pre-diabetic are both frequently completely unknown until later, but those conditions are there in 30- and 40-somethings. Folks love dismissing the danger as being primarily limited to the "vulnerable," without recognizing how vulnerable they may actually be.

And what do you mean by "herd immunity is an option"? An option for whom? So far we don't know if contracting and recovering from the virus confers immunity. There have certainly been documented cases of re-infection. Pandemic doesn't automatically equal herd immunity. We never developed herd immunity to Small Pox or Polio or even Measles without vaccines. And if it does, that's a huge number of folks who need to contract it--and as Indy points out, we don't even know the long-term consequences of being even an asymptomatic carrier.

But I do agree that most of the population is making better choices. Something like 80% of people support self-isolating and social distancing. Unfortunately even they need to get out and shop for food. Some have to work (like those of us in food production and distribution, and obviously medical and hospital personnel), and those folks making bad choices have the potential to harm all of us.
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Without a vaccine there is no 'herd immunity'.
 
RenegadeMonster said:
One of the interesting facts I have seen come out of MA is a breakdown of hardest hit communities when it comes to deaths.

No, it's not the communities with the most elderly or where COVID-19 got into nursing homes.

It's communities that have air pollution problems. Communities that have bad air quality are seeing the highest rates in deaths and younger deaths on average.
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A couple of things to remember:
1. In communities with poor health outcomes, there is a higher burden of disease. This includes asthma, hypertension, diabetes, COPD, etc. Everything from the stress of living in a dangerous community to the lack of healthy food available all adds to this burden of disease. Now, add in the fact that many people living in poorer communities do not have the best access to medical services and often have trouble affording care.
2. The only people that end up in retirement communities are people that can afford it, and that includes having enough good health to live long enough to get into a retirement community. People in retirement communities regularly see doctors and have some money available.

What this says to me is that poor people are dying at a greater rate, probably due to lack of healthcare. And the lack of healthcare in the past is being profoundly highlighted by the number of "young people with no prior conditions". There is almost always a prior condition, even if it's a silent condition. This is a good example of why we need to seriously reconsider treating healthcare like a commodity.
 
nolalady said:
A couple of things to remember:
1. In communities with poor health outcomes, there is a higher burden of disease. This includes asthma, hypertension, diabetes, COPD, etc. Everything from the stress of living in a dangerous community to the lack of healthy food available all adds to this burden of disease. Now, add in the fact that many people living in poorer communities do not have the best access to medical services and often have trouble affording care.
2. The only people that end up in retirement communities are people that can afford it, and that includes having enough good health to live long enough to get into a retirement community. People in retirement communities regularly see doctors and have some money available.

What this says to me is that poor people are dying at a greater rate, probably due to lack of healthcare. And the lack of healthcare in the past is being profoundly highlighted by the number of "young people with no prior conditions". There is almost always a prior condition, even if it's a silent condition. This is a good example of why we need to seriously reconsider treating healthcare like a commodity.
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Very true.

I didn't get into all of it, in my original post. But to summarize more from the report I saw on the local news over the weekend is the communities that see poorer air quality most often correlate with communities made up or low income or minority families. These communities are often down wind of plants and emissions.

The bad air quality correlates too much higher levels of asthma in the communities.

The didn't get into the lack of healthcare, but I'm sure that's a factor as well.
 
Captainfog said:
Without a vaccine there is no 'herd immunity'.
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Talking about herd immunity is always made more understandable by some number crunching. So herd Immunity is reached at 60-70%, lets calculate with 60%. The us has roughly 330 million people. So you need 198 million infected before you reach herd immunity. Assuming something like the lowest case fatality rates i've seen so far, say 0.2%, that would mean 435.000 casualties in the us in a best case scenario.
But you also want herd immunity to go fast, say in 100 days, so we can go back to normal in 3 months. That would mean you need on average 1.98 million new infections a day. ( it goes exponential and not linear, so you'd have few in the beginning and more later). Say all of them are young and healthy, so only 1% of those need a hospital visit, thats still 19.800 people new to the hospital each day. You're better hoping that the hospital system can take that, otgerwise yo'll have more than the 435000 dead cause you cannot keep the fatality rate that low if your hospitals dont work.
Well, i have to admit this is widely speculatibve, but at least done with the most optimistic estimates i could find.
 
Jan said:
Talking about herd immunity is always made more understandable by some number crunching. So herd Immunity is reached at 60-70%, lets calculate with 60%. The us has roughly 330 million people. So you need 198 million infected before you reach herd immunity. Assuming something like the lowest case fatality rates i've seen so far, say 0.2%, that would mean 435.000 casualties in the us in a best case scenario.
But you also want herd immunity to go fast, say in 100 days, so we can go back to normal in 3 months. That would mean you need on average 1.98 million new infections a day. ( it goes exponential and not linear, so you'd have few in the beginning and more later). Say all of them are young and healthy, so only 1% of those need a hospital visit, thats still 19.800 people new to the hospital each day. You're better hoping that the hospital system can take that, otgerwise yo'll have more than the 435000 dead cause you cannot keep the fatality rate that low if your hospitals dont work.
Well, i have to admit this is widely speculatibve, but at least done with the most optimistic estimates i could find.
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Good post

Just as an FYI, most hospital systems at this moment (and I'm speaking anecdotally and in a general sense) are unable to handle the current influx. Much less any sort of drastic increase in infected.
 
Jan said:
Talking about herd immunity is always made more understandable by some number crunching. So herd Immunity is reached at 60-70%, lets calculate with 60%. The us has roughly 330 million people. So you need 198 million infected before you reach herd immunity. Assuming something like the lowest case fatality rates i've seen so far, say 0.2%, that would mean 435.000 casualties in the us in a best case scenario.
But you also want herd immunity to go fast, say in 100 days, so we can go back to normal in 3 months. That would mean you need on average 1.98 million new infections a day. ( it goes exponential and not linear, so you'd have few in the beginning and more later). Say all of them are young and healthy, so only 1% of those need a hospital visit, thats still 19.800 people new to the hospital each day. You're better hoping that the hospital system can take that, otgerwise yo'll have more than the 435000 dead cause you cannot keep the fatality rate that low if your hospitals dont work.
Well, i have to admit this is widely speculatibve, but at least done with the most optimistic estimates i could find.
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How's Sweden doing? ;)
 
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Dtknuckles said:
How's Sweden doing? ;)
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Having more deaths than their scandinavian neighbours, but nowhere near zs or uk levels. i just saw a tv interview with their main virologist and he seemed like a smart guy. He thinks they have a good shot at going through this well. Mainly because they have a high acceptance of the recommended safety measures (social distancing etc) . They did not close down many things ( except all gatherings over 50 people), but the people are following recommendations that are not mandatory a lot.that seems to work well for seden. Thats the ideal case for a liberal democracy. Less authoritarian measures, more convincing of the populace. But as he said in the interview, we are still in the beginning stages of the pandemic. 2 years from now we may be able to say which course was the best, if that is ever possible.
 
RenegadeMonster said:
My father just texted me about how the CDC has adjusted down the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths.

Coronavirus deaths in the US now stand at 11,300 people. A reduction of 5,700 people. Those 5,700 people are now classified as flu-like deaths.

He went on about how flu deaths are being attributed to COVID-19 to inflate the death rate and if you add the two numbers together, the numbers are still within the usual flu deaths per season.


Like WTF.

Where did his info even come from, I don't see it reported anywhere. In the news today was deaths are much higher than previously anticipated.
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Here in Mexico, word is they are passing many Covid deaths as "atypical pneumonia", so as not to produce more numbers for Covid.

"Everything is fine".
 
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