Political Discussion

BjorgenFjorgen said:
Every national poll in the last several months has shown Bernie with the best chance over Trump in a federal election. I can't believe you've even tried looking at numbers. If the DNC trot out Hillary 2.0 this fall they will get destroyed and they will deserve it.
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Btsvinylfarm said:
A) national polls are meaningless, B) RCP aggregates show Biden performing better nationally than Sanders (+5.4 for Biden vs +4.9 for Bernie), and C) Biden is currently performing better in state polling in FL, they are running even in PA, and Bernie has a 0.1% advantage over Biden in MI.

But my concern is more about states like VA where Biden is +6 while Bernie is just +1.5, or in NC where Biden is +3.4 and Bernie just +0.7.

And then you have downballot concerns. Biden is running mostly even with Trump (+0.3) in AZ, while Bernie trails by 5%. There's a huge Senate opportunity there to take McSally's seat. No wonder why Mark Kelly (astronaut husband of Gabby Gifford's) who is running has endorsed Biden.

So yeah, I've been looking at the numbers. That's why I have concerns about Bernie and what it means for beating Trump as well as down ballot.
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So, backtracking to this discussion about whether I "even tried looking at the numbers", me posting polling averages, and my post prior to that concerning middle class suburban voters - last night reinforced a lot of my concerns about Bernie in a general election. It's one thing to have lost in VA and NC, but the size of the loss matters. And to have lost Minnesota - a state he won in 2016 and is needed as evidence of middle class Midwestern support - is bad. Massachusetts and Maine just make his night even worse.

And the numbers on the youth vote should worry all Sanders supporters. His electability argument hinges on youth turnout to offset suburbanite no-shows in a general election. Last night didn't inspire confidence in that theory.

Again, as I noted yesterday, I am anxious about this election. I want Trump out. And I will vote for whoever his Dem opponent is. But I'd be lying if I said that I truly believe Bernie could win in a head to head. Last night didn't calm those fears.
 
Bennnnn said:
Also should note that young people turnout was incredibly low. Not suggesting all of them would have voted for Bernie, but it’s still disappointing when the younger generation sits out voting. I know many younger people I work with who didn’t vote in the presidential election last time and were upset when Trump lost, saying they’d finally vote next time. Well I hope they also know voting in primaries and local elections are also really important, though I doubt it.
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That's not really clear yet. A lot of people are posting numbers to shame young people as if they were expecting them to vote in higher proportions than they are in the electorate. Older people will always vote more than young people because of various reasons. I'm sure the gutting of the Voting Rights Act and seven-hour-long lines to vote at colleges doesn't help. Biden is still tanking with anyone over 45. Young people want something new but there are still more voters in the 45+ bracket who don't give a shit about the kids.
 
Dtknuckles said:
Hey at least the school board elections worked out pretty well. 3/4 pro public 1 with a run off likely.

Looking at the primary I don’t see it as all negative. The types of issues that Bernie brings up weren’t even on the table a decade ago. 2016 primary was a long shot. 2020 primary he got even closer. Progressive ideas are gaining.

Bernie was always up against the DNC. They did what was expected, consolidated power. They saw their chance after Carolina. That and Warren splitting the progressive votes caused this.

I’ll vote for anyone over Trump as any reasonable person will.
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Can you point me to where I can learn more about the school board election you mentioned? I don't know anything about what that's about?
Just curious

Re progressive gains:
I hope so but I'm personally not feeling it in the Twin Cities this morning. Whatever the messaging is moving forward it needs to be more collaborative and more local. I know a lot of people voted out of fear / they bought into fear messaging. I also think a lot of people simply do not understand how a human well being economy benefits them... and some people will just never be on board with those ideas.

The issues Bernie brings up were on the table in 2010. I mean Hillary was pushing for health care for all in the mid-90's.

Clinton health care plan of 1993 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
My point is that all of this isn't new and the road is long and winding, but I do agree that there is a spotlight on what we are now labeling progressive ideals that hasn't been there before.
 
Btsvinylfarm said:
So, backtracking to this discussion about whether I "even tried looking at the numbers", me posting polling averages, and my post prior to that concerning middle class suburban voters - last night reinforced a lot of my concerns about Bernie in a general election. It's one thing to have lost in VA and NC, but the size of the loss matters. And to have lost Minnesota - a state he won in 2016 and is needed as evidence of middle class Midwestern support - is bad. Massachusetts and Maine just make his night even worse.

And the numbers on the youth vote should worry all Sanders supporters. His electability argument hinges on youth turnout to offset suburbanite no-shows in a general election. Last night didn't inspire confidence in that theory.

Again, as I noted yesterday, I am anxious about this election. I want Trump out. And I will vote for whoever his Dem opponent is. But I'd be lying if I said that I truly believe Bernie could win in a head to head. Last night didn't calm those fears.
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Hmm, I wonder what would have happened in those states if the other progressive candidate with no hope to win the nomination hadn't siphoned votes...
 
BjorgenFjorgen said:
Hmm, I wonder what would have happened in those states if the other progressive candidate with no hope to win the nomination hadn't siphoned votes...
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Is it weird that I don’t even see Warren as a progressive anymore? When you said “other progressive candidate” I went “who?”
 
Bennnnn said:
Also should note that young people turnout was incredibly low. Not suggesting all of them would have voted for Bernie, but it’s still disappointing when the younger generation sits out voting. I know many younger people I work with who didn’t vote in the presidential election last time and were upset when Trump lost, saying they’d finally vote next time. Well I hope they also know voting in primaries and local elections are also really important, though I doubt it.
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Yup.

My generation let everyone down by allowing George W. to win, and now it's the young people's turn to let Trump win these two terms. We're kind of idiots for thinking it would be different this time.
 
Ginormousthumbs said:
Biden will lose to Trump. We are doomed.
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I also think this is a fallacy. These types of prognostications in the primary season are notoriously unreliable. If Bernie can't beat Biden I don't think he'd be able to beat Trump.

There are plenty of "normal" people who just want a return to normalcy, and not having a giant clown in the WhiteHouse. They just aren't so actively "online".
 
gouis said:
No because the toxic arm of the online Bernie supporters have been out in force basically painting her as a traitor. I still think she'd be the best president.
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If she hadn't started punching left on everything, that probably wouldn't have happened.
 
gouis said:
She has spent all of her recent energy at the debates completely demolishing Bloomberg. Not sure how that is "punching left".

You also said that Biden winning was worse than Trump winning so I'm not sure you know what you're talking about.
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There is more campaign than just the debates. Calling Sanders out for "never getting anything done" while standing on the right side of history almost every time over the last 30 years while she was continuing to support the war in Yemen, among a million other things, is punching left.

My Biden-Trump argument is obviously more complex than "Biden is worse than Trump" but if you also would like to ignore that in bad faith, then be my guest!
 
gouis said:
She has spent all of her recent energy at the debates completely demolishing Bloomberg. Not sure how that is "punching left".

You also said that Biden winning was worse than Trump winning so I'm not sure you know what you're talking about.
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Whoa...who let Mike Tyson in here. Is that an ear in your mouth?!?!
 
Question: Do we think Warren is intentionally spoilong Bernie, and if so, is it just because she thinks he slighted her, or am I missing something?

I'd like Warren to be president, I just don't think she'll magically get the nomination at the DNC, and this is just the feeling I'm getting.
 
BjorgenFjorgen said:
There is more campaign than just the debates. Calling Sanders out for "never getting anything done" while standing on the right side of history almost every time over the last 30 years while she was continuing to support the war in Yemen, among a million other things, is punching left.

My Biden-Trump argument is obviously more complex than "Biden is worse than Trump" but if you also would like to ignore that in bad faith, then be my guest!
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I know what you're argument is in terms of a long-term vision of this country, but give Trump another 4 years and we might not have another president not named "Trump".

Please stop painting everyone that disagrees or even confronts your candidate as arguing in 'bad faith'. You're displaying the exact kind of hostile behavior that turned so many people off of Bernie (WHO I WILL VOTE FOR).
 
Phaneronic said:
Question: Do we think Warren is intentionally spoilong Bernie, and if so, is it just because she thinks he slighted her, or am I missing something?

I'd like Warren to be president, I just don't think she'll magically get the nomination at the DNC, and this is just the feeling I'm getting.
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No, all of these people are incredibly egotistical and don't think they should be the ones to step out. The only reason the moderates got in line is because Obama or someone similar called them and laid it on the line. Despite what the Bernie acolytes will have you believe she's still a progressive that the party isn't really keen on.

My hope is that she just wanted to be in it for MA, saw that she lost and will now drop out. But also if you're a woman in politics you're probably also tired of being told to "get in line" behind some white dude.
 
Phaneronic said:
Question: Do we think Warren is intentionally spoilong Bernie, and if so, is it just because she thinks he slighted her, or am I missing something?

I'd like Warren to be president, I just don't think she'll magically get the nomination at the DNC, and this is just the feeling I'm getting.
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No. I just think the DNC was better organized and Klobuchar and Pete, and their supporters, prefer Biden as a candidate. The reasons for that preference isn’t just ignorance or hatred as it’s being painted by some. It’s about fear and a lack of collaboration and coalition building with those voters

Warren has no chance at this point
 
gouis said:
I know what you're argument is in terms of a long-term vision of this country, but give Trump another 4 years and we might not have another president not named "Trump".

Please stop painting everyone that disagrees or even confronts your candidate has arguing in 'bad faith'. You're displaying the exact kind of hostile behavior that turned so many people off of Bernie (WHO I WILL VOTE FOR).
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Everyone being you, who summarized my argument as "Trump > Biden" and Jaycee who later admitted he misread what I said? That's not hostile. But if a "return to civility" is more important to people than actual change, I think they're going to be sorely disappointed in the results.
 
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