Political Discussion

Sadly I'm to skeptical for this. I think China is a) looking to guage what kind of response an invasion of Taiwan would receive in turn, particularly with the international players distracted by escalation in the Ukrainian conflict and b) will almost certainly be back-door financing Russia, rendering a these sanctions being discussed far more ineffective than the NATO countries seem to think they are going to be.

Russia also has a relatively small sovereign debt. Holds huge foreign currency reserves and has been divesting its energy business towards China since the Crimean annexation in 2014. Where it is weak, and where these sanctions could hurt, is the amount of Russian stock that is traded in London and the amount of the oligarchs money that held there. Acting quickly to freeze that could hit Putin’s support base pretty hard pretty quickly. Whether he can front that out until the greed of the city once again overtakes morals is the question.
 
The scary thing about Russian nuclear arms is the shift from a deterrence to a strike first policy. Although, one could estimate that it is a policy meant to temper western responses and encourage diplomatic, rather than military responses (i.e. alarm from the west at a potential nuclear strike that leads to inaction).

Russia's military inventory has been dwarfed by the U.S. and NATO over the years. Not to say Russia doesn't have state-of-the-art stuff - fighters, SAMS, ground equipment, etc. They certainly do. But western investment - for better or worse - has pulled ahead in what used to be a neck-to-neck race. With a few exceptions...

The aforementioned nuclear policy. It's not necessarily a capability, but a position of suitability (i.e. what Russia is willing to do, or at least project in their overt policy). Electronic warfare (I've attached a 2017 ICDS study highlighting Russia's attention to these capabilities)....Russian military leadership understands our C4ISR capabilities and reliance on the EM spectrum (be it the operation of our myriad systems, or command and control and the very ability to "act"). They've prepared to degrade it and operate in that environment. Cyber warfare...honestly, that is one of the biggest issues facing nations in peace or wartime. Be it military or civilian systems and state or non-state actors. If you're not familiar with the breadth of threats, here is a good open source primer of advanced persistent threats and the nations they benefit....https://attack.mitre.org/. Shit is scary and we're just taking notice and measures. Finally, Russia's use of proxy groups..."little green men", Wagner (Vagner) group, whatever name we call them....Russia has expertly wielded them to control territory, enact atrocities, lead separatist forces, and allow for deniability (be it Ukraine, Syria, Africa, etc.).
 

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Beijing seems to be aligning themselves with Russia and not the West when it comes to this conflict after refusing to denounce Russia's actions. Beijing also directly is pointing the finger at the United States for causing this war.

Basically the United States is the aggressor for supporting NATO's expansion eastward in Beijing's opinion which fanned up the flames of this conflict. And of course they said the United States actions were completely irresponsible and directly lead to this conflict. Beijing even accused the United States of shifting the blame to others when they are to blame.
 
Those poor people. This is absolutely heartbreaking.
Serious question - how close are we to WW3? I am not panicking, and yet definitely have a sense of unease at the very least.
ummmmmm:
Beijing seems to be aligning themselves with Russia and not the West when it comes to this conflict after refusing to denounce Russia's actions. Beijing also directly is pointing the finger at the United States for causing this war.

Basically the United States is the aggressor for supporting NATO's expansion eastward in Beijing's opinion which fanned up the flames of this conflict. And of course they said the United States actions were completely irresponsible and directly lead to this conflict. Beijing even accused the United States of shifting the blame to others when they are to blame.
I would say we are really close to WW3 right now.
 
If y'all want a resource to track happenings in Ukraine...this map ingests new from various sources.


Interestingly, this was created by two Ukranians following the annexation of Crimea and RLSF in the Donbas region. It covers other regions and topics, as well.

Another good source for assessments and stuff you may not get on the big news networks....

 
Amazing how the rightful support for Ukraine quickly turns into celebration of war. Like 2 planes full of Russian troops being shot down isn't actually good news at all. War is bad, y'all
I assume you mean the IL-76 shoot downs? I agree that taking life in an absolute kind of way is a bad thing. In this context, though, and in light of what Russia would doctrinally be carrying (most likely paratroopers, which rough estimate would be ~250 between the two) it's a "good" thing. I don't say that in a celebratory way - I think, at least my perspective - and I try to see this from a sort of consequentialist viewpoint - is that better a few hundred soldiers who agreed to the rules of the game than the civilians that could have been caught in the midst of their ensuing operations. Yeah, war is bad. But when it's happening and becomes an inextricable fact of life I guess there are more factors inputting into the output of good and bad, if we draw such binary distinctions.

I think celebration is certainly odd from a "spectator" point of view. Though, I don't think I could fault a Ukranian for celebrating these things.
 
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I assume you mean the IL-76 shoot downs? I agree that taking life in an absolute kind of way is a bad thing. In this context, though, and in light of what Russia would doctrinally be carrying (most likely paratroopers, which rough estimate would be ~250 between the two) it's a "good" thing. I don't say that in a celebratory way - I think, at least my perspective - and I try to see this from a sort of consequentialist viewpoint - is that better a few hundred soldiers who agreed to the rules of the game than the civilians that could have been caught in the midst of their ensuing operations. Yeah, war is bad. But when it's happening and becomes an inextricable fact of life I guess there is more factors inputting into the output of good and bad, if we draw such binary distinctions.

I think celebration is certainly odd from a "spectator" point of view. Though, I don't think I could fault a Ukranian for celebrating these things.
I agree with all that. The undeniably celebratory nature is spreading through the typical channels like Reddit, though. The dehumanized evil caricature of Russian forces vs the brave underdog and highly humanized Ukrainian is escalating at an alarming rate. While the only thing happening right now that is objectively wrong is the invasion itself, the cheerleading and glorification is at a tipping point. The sanctions alone are going to destabilize already shaky economies across the globe. Everything about this is deeply grim. Warmongering is not an acceptable coping mechanism.
 
I agree with all that. The undeniably celebratory nature is spreading through the typical channels like Reddit, though. The dehumanized evil caricature of Russian forces vs the brave underdog and highly humanized Ukrainian is escalating at an alarming rate. While the only thing happening right now that is objectively wrong is the invasion itself, the cheerleading and glorification is at a tipping point. The sanctions alone are going to destabilize already shaky economies across the globe. Everything about this is deeply grim. Warmongering is not an acceptable coping mechanism.
Right on. I guess I have the "benefit" of being unaware of those channels (I mean, I know they exist but I don't pay attention to Reddit, Twitter, or whatever other channels people use to enhance [degrade?] their spectatorship of these things) so I'm not tuned into the milieu that develops around these news cycles.

The most back-and-forth I have is a work GroupMe where we share current events around this and others share some memes (okay, a lot of memes). Although, the most shared meme-type stuff is about the Ghost of Kyiv, which we've already established is likely 99.99% a fake thing.

But this whole thing is certainly a neck-turning event. The GWOT and its branches of conflict have long been the main focus of attention, and, let's be honest, have been going on so long that its become background noise for most - with hot spots of attention-grabbing here and there. Peer and near-peer military nations - while never having gone anywhere - have not been at the forefront of the general populations' minds. Usually when we invoke the threat of, say, a China or Russia or a North Korea or Iran it's about human rights or more political and diplomatic perspectives. I think this is a crashing reminder of the magnitude of force that nations can project onto their neighbors and into the world (the U.S. included, lest we minimize our impact in favor of blind patriotic posturing). It takes a lot to grab this much attention to something that's always been there - this is a lot.
 
I agree with all that. The undeniably celebratory nature is spreading through the typical channels like Reddit, though. The dehumanized evil caricature of Russian forces vs the brave underdog and highly humanized Ukrainian is escalating at an alarming rate. While the only thing happening right now that is objectively wrong is the invasion itself, the cheerleading and glorification is at a tipping point. The sanctions alone are going to destabilize already shaky economies across the globe. Everything about this is deeply grim. Warmongering is not an acceptable coping mechanism.

I fully agree with your take, but I would also like to point out that this caricature, namely winning the psychological and information war and winning hearts around the world and especially within Russia itself, is the best chance Ukraine has of coming out of this still having a country. And they're doing a glorious job of it.

Did you see the video of the Russian tank veering on the road to flatten an innocent civilian in an oncoming car? It's hard to stay indifferent when you see something like that.
 
“I DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY?
I AM ASHAMED”Natalie Jaresko
Ukrainian-American Patriot
Former Minister of Finance of Ukraine

Saturday February 26, 2022


Ukrainians are asking from bomb shelters and underground bunkers where the western democracies are right now.

I ask the same. It has come to this. Despite my deep love for the United States of America, I am ashamed.

I did not expect American boots on the ground. I understood the US position on engaging the US military v. Russia, even if I may have other personal views.

However, I DO NOT understand why we are not providing massive military supplies, in particular Stingers, sniper rifles, javelins, drones and ammunition, since Ukrainians are willing to defend themselves.

I DO NOT understand the slow roll out of economic, financial and energy sanctions. I DO NOT understand why we are not sanctioning all Russian state securities (not just those issued after March 1), all Russian state banks, the Central Bank of Russia, all state owned enterprises of Russia, without exception. I DO NOT understand why we have not expelled Russia from the SWIFT system, the Visa and Mastercard systems.

I DO NOT understand why we don't sanction Putin (whether or not we have access to his assets is irrelevant). I DO NOT understand why we have not sanctioned all of the Russia Duma, Cabinet and National Security Council members and all their families.

I DO NOT understand why the US (and every other democratic country) has maintained air privileges for Russian airlines to fly to the USA. I DO NOT understand why Russian diplomats have not all been expelled from the United States (they have NO right to live in peace and freedom if they deny Ukrainians the same).

I DO NOT understand why we have not revoked the licenses of all Russian state media throughout the Western world. I DO NOT understand why we have not publicly pilloried all the former government officials who serve on the Boards of Russian state owned enterprises.

I DO NOT understand why we have not demanded social platforms address inauthentic accounts tied to the Kremlin and spreading disinformation immediately; and sanction them from doing business with and monetizing Russia state accounts.

I DO NOT understand why we have not sanctioned all the Russian oligarchs (take the top 200 on the Forbes list) who have not disavowed Putin and his genocide of Ukraine.

I DO NOT understand why we have not called for a UN vote to expel Russia given they have made a mockery of the UN Charter with their violation of it. I DO NOT understand why we have not yet expelled Russia from OSCE and Council of Europe. I DO NOT understand why we have not yet cancelled the visas of all Russian visitors, business people and students.

I DO NOT understand why the American people are not pressuring U.S. business to divest from the tyrant's businesses, as we did in South Africa because of apartheid. I DO NOT understand why we are not charging Putin with war crimes, for targeting hospitals, orphanages, kindergartens and residential buildings....

This is the war. In war, you do everything humanly possible to stop the aggressor as quickly as humanly possible. We must isolate the pariah.

"Never again" we said after WWII. Here we are AGAIN...

Hundreds of people, thousands, are dying. Innocent, peaceful people who did nothing to provoke this other than breathe freedom.

I am ashamed. I do not understand.

Natalie A. Jaresko.
 
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