Political Discussion

I'll take anything NY Times and Nate Silver with a grain of salt. Nate Silver works for Peter Thiel. The NY Times has a vested interest in keeping things close. Also, Donald Trump has never won the popular vote.

Otherwise, why aren't they putting what Trump said about jailing Kamala donors and election officials on the front page of their paper?
 
I'd like to believe that, but after 2016 I'm not counting my eggs before they hatch.

Meanwhile in a day and a life of our circus. I mean election cycle...

Trump warms up for debate by threatening to jail election officials


What a crazy timeline we live in.
Despite the momentum that Harris is clearly enjoying and how obvious it is to anyone with an ounce of sense that Trump is neither all there mentally nor fit to be president under the best mental capacities, there is every reason to think that this will still be a close election. Don't forget that even in his loss to Biden he broke records for how many voted for him, and that was after two fresh impeachments and non-stop scandals. The fucknob literally told us to inject bleach on national television and had record turn out to vote for him. Biden's record turn out was gratefully even better. But the one thing he delivered on that put the Dems in such a precarious position is saying that nothing would fundamentally change with him. And it didn't. The stock market is up and the rich got richer while the poor got poorer. The non-college educated are in a tough spot and they're lapping up the racism that blames everyone but the guilty for it. That fascist playbook works. And it works well.

I obviously would love for Trump and the rest of the GOP to get so stomped into the dirt that it destroys the party and crushes the movement, but this insanity didn't start with Trump and it won't die with Trump. Cheney is one of the guiltiest mfers there is for making this situation a reality where the GOP thinks they can just ignore the law, and his turn to Harris, and the welcome arms of the Dems, disgusts me. He's a mass murderer, a war criminal, and guilty of crimes against humanity. If there was any kind of backbone in politics she would condemn him publicly. But there isn't and in typical Democratic fashion they think they they can win over the old Republican guard. But there was absolutely nothing moderate about W. and Cheney's politics. He doesn't deserve to be rehabilitated by Democrats, he belongs in the Hague. The cost is that the Dems lurch further right, the GOP gets more extreme, and the slow revolution that people like Cheney orchestrated to destroy any leftist power in America by cementing the two party system as complete right wing adherents is complete.

But the point is that the genie Cheney and his ilk let out of the bottle can't be put back in without using the law as a weapon to place serious penalities and sanctions on all these politicians who are flaunting it and the Dems are so scared of pushing away the fabled moderate Republican voter that they won't do it. And the cost is their party, the country, and progressive policies at the electoral level.

In the best case, Harris wins and Walz doesn't end up being an empty progressive. Then he wins and somehow the planet hangs on long enough for us to finally get some real work done on climate change and income inequality before the system implodes on itself.

If Trump wins, then I don't even know anymore. I'll probably be out of a job and surviving on a day to day basis will be a stranglehold on most of us.

It's clear to most that voting and in big numbers is necessary. But there's still a lot of apathy out there. I finally saw a Harris commercial yesterday that didn't piss me off. And it makes me think she's finally getting some good advice. She needs to inspire people. That's what propelled Obama to victory. Just talking about what she's done and trying to run against Trump and on her record isn't enough to get everyone she needs pumped and to the polls. She needs to get them to believe that the future can be better. The debate is a real chance at that and I hope that's her main focus, because if it isn't I think it's going to be a very tight race.
 
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I'll take anything NY Times and Nate Silver with a grain of salt. Nate Silver works for Peter Thiel. The NY Times has a vested interest in keeping things close. Also, Donald Trump has never won the popular vote.

Otherwise, why aren't they putting what Trump said about jailing Kamala donors and election officials on the front page of their paper?
Nate Silver really has gone off the ethical train. He always rubbed me wrong, but his getting paid by betting sites that use his data for their lines doesn't pass the smell test. His ranking of poll quality this election is garbage and very biased too. He seems bitter and in Thiel's pocket.
 
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Fuck

What’s going on here and why does this pole heavily favor Trump?


Fuck my life. My day is now ruined.

If real than 3 things have happened-
1) RFK
2) People who circled back with hope that she'd be different on Palestine have realized there is 0 chance of that being the case after multiple instances of her doubling down
3) Her refusal to take interviews while Trump is literally podcast hopping every day has caught up with her.

I'm in the process of trying to buy a condo and am now wondering if that is insanity.
 
No, you're being played by a poll that wants to generate content. Go look at state by state polls. She's doing fine. Most polls found RFK gave him a minimal bump. Palestine has nothing to do with it. She is out there plenty. She's just not letting the media control her narrative. You are falling for the outrage the media is trying to gin up. No one cares that she's not doing interviews except the right and the media. The right wants it so they can play gotcha with her. The media loves to insert themselves in this. This is Hillary 2016 all over again. Don't fall for it again.
 
Fuck my life. My day is now ruined.

If real than 3 things have happened-
1) RFK
2) People who circled back with hope that she'd be different on Palestine have realized there is 0 chance of that being the case after multiple instances of her doubling down
3) Her refusal to take interviews while Trump is literally podcast hopping every day has caught up with her.

I'm in the process of trying to buy a condo and am now wondering if that is insanity.
Don't let Nate Silver have any tangible effect on your life.
 
No, you're being played by a poll that wants to generate content. Go look at state by state polls. She's doing fine. Most polls found RFK gave him a minimal bump. Palestine has nothing to do with it. She is out there plenty. She's just not letting the media control her narrative. You are falling for the outrage the media is trying to gin up. No one cares that she's not doing interviews except the right and the media.

I think you mentioned this before but issues that matter to Pennsylvania will matter more than others. It’s unfortunate but unless the October surprise throws a massive wrench in the works, that state looks like it’s going to be the kingmaker. If anything, fracking may be a bigger issue than everything else that’s mentioned.
 
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Don't let Nate Silver have any tangible effect on your life.

I hate Nate Silver. But the polls in general have been going south for several weeks while Trump literally rambles about imprisoning his "enemies" and his plans to put people like Musk into positions of power.

I have 230k of student debt. If Trump is elected, I'm straight fucked.
 
I hate Nate Silver. But the polls in general have been going south for several weeks while Trump literally rambles about imprisoning his "enemies" and his plans to put people like Musk into positions of power.

I have 230k of student debt. If Trump is elected, I'm straight fucked.

It was always going to be tight but don't take every poll at face value. Poll are massively flawed. How many people even respond to an unknown number when it comes through on their cell phone? The guy who has called every election correctly outside of Bush/Gore in 2000 said she should win.
 

It was always going to be tight but don't take every poll at face value. Poll are massively flawed. How many people even respond to an unknown number when it comes through on their cell phone? The guy who has called every election correctly outside of Bush/Gore in 2000 said she should win.
To be honest, he called that one right as well.
 
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