Political Discussion

DownIsTheNewUp said:
I hate Nate Silver. But the polls in general have been going south for several weeks while Trump literally rambles about imprisoning his "enemies" and his plans to put people like Musk into positions of power.
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Have they though? She's hovered at like a 2-3 point national lead for at least a month. Polsters have heavily underestimated dems for at least 2 elections now, so no reason to think this will be different. She'll be fine, but dooming gets clicks.
 
RenegadeMonster said:
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Fuck

What’s going on here and why does this pole heavily favor Trump?
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This is what I have been harping on for months now. Their data is bullshit. There is no world where Trump wins the popular vote. Polling has not been accurate over the past decade and pollsters tried to compensate by “weighting” certain demographics. The changes in how we live our lives (people don’t have landlines, or answer unknown calls on their cellphones) have not been properly accounted for in polling. The pollster attempted to cover their bases by saying everything is within the margins of error but if elections are incredibly close and everything is within 5 points either way then essentially they are not providing their readers with any useful information. They are just creating clicks by raising anxiety by their subscriber base.

Just go out and vote. Regardless of polling If everyone votes Harris will win. It’s that simple.
 
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RenegadeMonster said:
Who is Nate Silver? I have never heard of him before his name was mentioned in this thread today.
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He was one of the forefathers of data analytics. Initially he used analytics prowess in the realm of sports but 2008 he used polling data to accurately predict the election results mainly be looking at smaller state level polls and then running an aggregate of the data which proved to be accurate when the elections were not particularly close.

Via ABC News he ran a new analytics site called 538 which has not been very accurate as of late (within their margins or error but not accurately predicting actual winners). During Covid he got weird and said some shit on social media that rightfully raised the ire of those on the Left (who were his primary base readership) and now he is embracing the Peter Theil’s of the world.
 
ayayrawn said:
Have they though? She's hovered at like a 2-3 point national lead for at least a month. Polsters have heavily underestimated dems for at least 2 elections now, so no reason to think this will be different. She'll be fine, but dooming gets clicks.
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A set of swing state polls just came out as a dead heat including places like WI that have no business being tied.

And yes, polls have underestimate Dems post Roe being overturned. They also underestimsted Trump every time he is on the ballot because he turns out people who don't typically vote which is what these models aim to fix. Whether they are doing so is completely up in the air.
 
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TenderLovingKiller® said:
The funny thing about the recent polls is if you read Nate Cohns most recent piece regarding this poll…

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www.nytimes.com
…you can tell he knows these numbers are fucked but has to try to justify why they might be accurate and it reads like a half hearted defense.
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Regarding Trumps advantage…

“He occupies the center. A near majority of voters say Mr. Trump is “not too far” to the left or right on the issues, while only around one-third say he’s “too far to the right.” Nearly half of voters, in contrast, say Ms. Harris is too far to the left; only 41 percent say she’s “not too far either way.””

No one thinks Trump occupies the center or anything.
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
Regarding Trumps advantage…

“He occupies the center. A near majority of voters say Mr. Trump is “not too far” to the left or right on the issues, while only around one-third say he’s “too far to the right.” Nearly half of voters, in contrast, say Ms. Harris is too far to the left; only 41 percent say she’s “not too far either way.””

No one thinks Trump occupies the center or anything.
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And this boggles my mind. As Harris is not at on left. She is solidly center.
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
Regarding Trumps advantage…

“He occupies the center. A near majority of voters say Mr. Trump is “not too far” to the left or right on the issues, while only around one-third say he’s “too far to the right.” Nearly half of voters, in contrast, say Ms. Harris is too far to the left; only 41 percent say she’s “not too far either way.””

No one thinks Trump occupies the center or anything.
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This is fucking INSANE and makes me think the media has broken things so much that we are past the point of being redeemable.

Trump is the most far right candidate in American history and it isn't close. Harris is a neoliberal centrist.
 
DownIsTheNewUp said:
This is fucking INSANE and makes me think the media has broken things so much that we are past the point of being redeemable.

Trump is the most far right candidate in American history and it isn't close. Harris is a neoliberal centrist.
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This is both the fault of the media AND dems. Republicans get elected and do obviously horrible shit. Dems get elected and keep those things around/refuse to fix them/normalize them. The overton window shifts right.
 
DownIsTheNewUp said:
This is fucking INSANE and makes me think the media has broken things so much that we are past the point of being redeemable.

Trump is the most far right candidate in American history and it isn't close. Harris is a neoliberal centrist.
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But It’s only insane if you buy that the polling is accurate. It’s clearly not. It’s results like this where they put themselves. Only MAGA nut jobs think Trump is a moderate. If these are the numbers you are seeing your poll is clearly fucked.
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
But It’s only insane if you buy that the polling is accurate. It’s clearly not. It’s results like this where they put themselves. Only MAGA nut jobs think Trump is a moderate. If these are the numbers you are seeing your poll is clearly fucked.
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I'm reading it as not people thinking Trump is moderate, but rather "not to far right". They know he leans right, but they don't think he leans too far.

Where as someone who is actual in the center, many of the people who think trump is "not to far right" think Harris is "too far left".
 
RenegadeMonster said:
I'm reading it as not people thinking Trump is moderate, but rather "not to far right". They know he leans right, but they don't think he leans too far.

Where as someone who is actual in the center, many of the people who think trump is "not to far right" think Harris is "too far left".
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Because people are morons who get spoon fed bullshit which, as others have pointed out, has shifted the Overton Window furthet and further to the right for 40+ years.
 
DownIsTheNewUp said:
people are morons who get spoon fed bullshit
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Unbelievable amounts of bullshit too...
20K illegal Haitians in Ohio eating neighborhood cats is the latest one that is circulating.
Before that it was the apartment building in Chicago overrun by a Venezuelan gang
And of course the 'your kid goes to school and has an operation and comes home a different gender'
Morons indeed.
 
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