While I find Presidential polling over the last few election cycles to be flawed and unreliable. I am still fairly analytical in the way I process data and information. I bring this up because I was just reading about the Virtual TOUT Predictive Model.
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It was created by a Northwestern University Data Scientist and instead of basing the predictions off of polling data it’s based betting markets. I have no clue if this methodology is accurate or not, though it did accurately predict the 2020 election and the 2020 Georgia Senate runoff (Though, so did I, without any data model at all). Still it’s an interesting concept. There is a timeline of the model set to the timeline of the major election events that have occurred during the election cycle and it’s wild how volatile the model has been going from Trump at near 500 electoral college votes following the GOP Convention/first assassination attempt to Harris at +350 EC votes following the second debate and though things have declined a bit since their peak, this model still has Harris clearing 320 EC votes, which basically means if the race were today and the model was correct Harris would win all the major swing states.
Again, I have no idea if this model is on to something or if it’s just someone that got lucky but if it is accurate A. Harris is in really good shape and B. Biden was pretty fucked and him stepping aside was the best move possible.
www.yahoo.com
