Political Discussion

it’s weird. Dems seem to fluctuate between supreme overconfidence and bedwetting dread.

I see people pointing to polls and betting markets and how close the polling has been both in battleground states and on the National level basically stating it’s a coin flip, and they start to spiral but honestly, even if the election is super close; it still gives me hope in that at a certain point it becomes a numbers game and even if the polling is exactly right (which I have serious doubts about), it eventually becomes a numbers game and I still feel very confident that Harris has more money and a much better “turn out the vote” campaign in the places that matter so even if things are 50/50 right now (which again, I have serious doubts about) I think these elements will be enough to elect Harris as president.
 
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A couple of days ago I doom scrolled a little bit and came to terms with Trump winning. We "survived" last time we'll all probably "survive" if it happens again. I think we were all so shell-shocked because him winning in 2016 came out of nowhere. So, if it happens again it'll be really disheartening and I'll be upset over it for sure, but I've accepted that it's a thing that can happen this time around. I've tried to remove myself from following politics this time around but it's really hard when there's a couple of weeks to go. Just helps to prepare for the worst and hope for the best idk.
 
Moore, who's been right at last the least 4 elections (presidential and midterm), reiterated he expects an easy Harris win. Lichtmann still sitting pretty comfortably with his prediction too. I don't think it'll be a tsunami, but I think it'll be comfortable. Probably around 280 or 290. The fact is she's up against a historically unliked candidate who has only been hemorrhaging supporters the last 4 years only helps.

No matter what, this is it. Fascism isn't going anywhere.

Hemotep said:
I'm not looking to argue with anyone who doesn't trust the data or just believes things will work out. I of course hope you're right even as the science I practice does not have a place for hope. But the point of even posting this is that I do wish that you all will consider volunteering to help vulnerable folks in your communities. Be willing to stand up for, and hide if need be, trans folks and undocumented migrants. Help women who need abortions. This will stand regardless of who wins since the assault won't stop, but even more so if the fascists win. It's going to be worse than last time. And if they win, by then it'll be too late to plan how to resist without it adding risk to yourself and those you want to protect. So take some time and think about what you would need to do in the worst case scenario. Be prepared. Don't get caught by surprise and give into fear or anxiety. Don't acquiesce to their control. Rely on each other. Read anti fascist texts. Remember to love.
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ayayrawn said:
Moore, who's been right at last the least 4 elections (presidential and midterm), reiterated he expects an easy Harris win. Lichtmann still sitting pretty comfortably with his prediction too. I don't think it'll be a tsunami, but I think it'll be comfortable. Probably around 280 or 290. The fact is she's up against a historically unliked candidate who has only been hemorrhaging supporters the last 4 years only helps.

No matter what, this is it. Fascism isn't going anywhere.
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Trump is up five points from Jan 2021 according to 538. It seems he has gained support.
 
Nee Lewman said:
Trump is up five points from Jan 2021 according to 538. It seems he has gained support.
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538 was also gutted within the last year, and there is a known, concerted effort of right wing grifters throwing imbalanced polls into the pool this year to warp the numbers. I am 100% sure this is not the case. The people that hated Trump then still hate him now and people have only gotten more tired of him. Harris' coalition with prominent conservatives (as much as that sucks and will hurt us in the long run) is going to help her. I think at the end of the day 5-10% of registered repubs that vote are going to go for her.
 
Nee Lewman said:
Trump is up five points from Jan 2021 according to 538. It seems he has gained support.
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There are less undecided voters now. That a big reason his numbers look better this time around. Most undecided voters broke to Trump last election. I don’t know if the split will be as profound this time as more people know who Trump the numbers of undecided this time around is a fraction of what it had been in previous elections meaning Trump already has most Trump supporters baked into his numbers already. It shows a closer race but one that will likely be much less volatile in Trump favor as the actual votes are counted.
 
ayayrawn said:
538 was also gutted within the last year, and there is a known, concerted effort of right wing grifters throwing imbalanced polls into the pool this year to warp the numbers. I am 100% sure this is not the case. The people that hated Trump then still hate him now and people have only gotten more tired of him. Harris' coalition with prominent conservatives (as much as that sucks and will hurt us in the long run) is going to help her. I think at the end of the day 5-10% of registered repubs that vote are going to go for her.
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Harris internal polling must show that really hitting Trump with the Fascist stuff is moving the needle because it’s been a big focus of her campaign over the past few weeks. I feel like they are micro targeting gettable votes at this point. The Rightward shift is annoying for sure but the Dem coalition is so huge from AOC to Liz Cheney, she is trying to appeal the widest swath available.

Trump also has spent another election cycle appealing to his diehard base without reaching g out to the middle at all. That hasn’t proved to be a viable pathway to winning many statewide or national elections during the MAGA era.
 
I also think we are gonna find, once all is said and done; that Trump does better nationally than in his previous elections but still won’t win the electoral college. I still think Harris takes the National popular by a good margin but I think Trump will hit personal record margins in solid blue states where GOP voters see Trump as a protest vote against their deep blue state governments. In 2020 Trump received more votes in California than he did in Texas. I think that trend will continue.
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
Harris internal polling must show that really hitting Trump with the Fascist stuff is moving the needle because it’s been a big focus of her campaign over the past few weeks. I feel like they are micro targeting gettable votes at this point. The Rightward shift is annoying for sure but the Dem coalition is so huge from AOC to Liz Cheney, she is trying to appeal the widest swath available.

Trump also has spent another election cycle appealing to his diehard base without reaching g out to the middle at all. That hasn’t proved to be a viable pathway to winning many statewide or national elections during the MAGA era.
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I think the worry would be more that the democrats are historically a centre right party that was a home for moderate lefties because there was nowhere else because of the two party system. Them drifting to the right might be a strategy for an election or two but longer term it’s a really unhealthy trend for your political landscape and the health of your democracy.
 
Here are 2 topics I found interesting on the news today.

First topic, according to CNN is over the last 12 dates the top 2 topics that have biggest decision maker for undecided voters have been fascism and the price of groceries. Those worried about fascism the most will likely vote for Harris. Those concerned about the cost of groceries will likely vote for Trump. This I don't get. Wouldn't things not be the same or worse under Trump in terms of cost for Groceries. The inflation we have seen was not the doing of the Biden / Harris administration. It all started under Trump and Covid.

Second topic is about Russia and China interference in our election. According to NPR the amount of miss information they are putting out there is at historic record levels. But that's not what I found interesting. What I found interesting is that the interference coming out of Russia targets democrats and favors Trump where out of China it targets Republicans and favors Democrats. I guess China doesn't want a tariff war with Trump.
 
The journalist double standards this election cycle has been maddening…
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The media treats these candidates like they are both normal politicians even though Trump uses dangerous rhetoric, threatening to use the military against “the enemy within” they go out of their way to water it down and explain away his craziness but if Harris agrees with former Trump cabinet members and generals that Trump is a Fascist she has thrown all decorum out the window.
 
Speaking of double standards. I hate how undecided voters don't care about anything trump says. But Harris better have the complete information, including full text of laws of what she is proposing and all the data and proof to back up what she is saying. If she doesn't have everything it's being held against her. Her saying she will do this or that isn't enough and turns undecided voters away.
 
Joe Mac said:
I think the worry would be more that the democrats are historically a centre right party that was a home for moderate lefties because there was nowhere else because of the two party system. Them drifting to the right might be a strategy for an election or two but longer term it’s a really unhealthy trend for your political landscape and the health of your democracy.
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TenderLovingKiller® said:
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The future is catching you up real fast though because this conversation is happening for third cycle in a row and the drift has increased each time. If it happens again in 4 years time with Trump having exited the arena then I think a lot of people who are struggling with the rhetoric of “a lesser of two evils”, who is still supporting a genocide, will just not be willing to eat that anymore.
 
Joe Mac said:
The future is catching you up real fast though because this conversation is happening for third cycle in a row and the drift has increased each time. If it happens again in 4 years time with Trump having exited the arena then I think a lot of people who are struggling with the rhetoric of “a lesser of two evils”, who is still supporting a genocide, will just not be willing to eat that anymore.
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Problem is if Trump is elected president none of that will likely matter regardless. If nothing else winning now buys us more time just like winning in 2020 bought the US more time. Trump winning would result in a compete change to everything in such a consequential way that unfortunately has to stay the focus for the time being. Things definitely need to change but change in government tends to slow and plodding and the only way you can ensure it occurs at all is by being in power.
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
Problem is if Trump is elected president none of that will likely matter regardless. If nothing else winning now buys us more time just like winning in 2020 bought the US more time. Trump winning would result in a compete change to everything in such a consequential way that unfortunately has to stay the focus for the time being. Things definitely need to change but change in government tends to slow and plodding and the only way you can ensure it occurs at all is by being in power.
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The issue is that your problems are way bigger than him in so many ways. The focus solely on beating him at all costs is making them worse, not better. There has been a time when standing up to your allies, attempting to change things so that a whole generation isn’t locked out of the property market and other big ticket things that affect everyone’s everyday life become more important than that.
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
Problem is if Trump is elected president none of that will likely matter regardless. If nothing else winning now buys us more time just like winning in 2020 bought the US more time. Trump winning would result in a compete change to everything in such a consequential way that unfortunately has to stay the focus for the time being. Things definitely need to change but change in government tends to slow and plodding and the only way you can ensure it occurs at all is by being in power.
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We're buying ourselves time by poisoning ourselves. By the time Trump is out of the picture, we will have a whole different set of problems of our own making. It's important to acknowledge this. We've already kicked the can down the road three presidential elections now.
 
ayayrawn said:
We're buying ourselves time by poisoning ourselves. By the time Trump is out of the picture, we will have a whole different set of problems of our own making. It's important to acknowledge this. We've already kicked the can down the road three presidential elections now.
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Completely agree. Shit needs to be shaken up badly, hopefully Harris wins and we get a chance to make things better going forward but the frustrations are warranted. It’s just not my primary focus based on where we are right now.
 
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