Political Discussion

MyWifeHatesTrain said:
Harris is really the only viable option with this short of a runway. Unless they can get Clooney or the Rock to run, I think it has to be her. Newsom or Whitmer should be VP. We’ll see what happens. They need to do whatever fast.
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Newsom and Harris can’t be on the same ticket by law as the Pres and VP can’t be from the same state. One of the reasons I never understood why so many were talking up Rubio as Trump’s VP pick. He’d have had to give up his senate seat, and move out of FL.
 
Ghost said:
I feel like my generation just sees her as a robot and a cop and generally not a favorable candidate. Has she been a good VP?
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Relatively inert. She thinks she’s still in the honeymoon phase, so every time the camera pans her way she’s just kinda smirking and fumbles through a couple sentences. It’s been 4 years now Kamala, you belong here, act like it.
 
Harris’ support peaked at 15 percent when she ran against Biden in 2020. I don’t believe the Republicans have forgotten her negatives from that time why she could not beat Biden.

It’s amazing to me that people are arguing that an old, but effective, incumbent President has no chance to beat a convicted felon who tried to overthrow the US election process.

I don’t think Biden won the first time because he was the best possible Democrat; I think he won by not being Donald Trump. He was a consensus candidate and I don’t see a plurality behind a different candidate today.

But, at my age, my perspective is peppered with the history of the wins and losses I’ve seen the Democrats have over multiple decades.
 
Angsty said:
Harris’ support peaked at 15 percent when she ran against Biden in 2020. I don’t believe the Republicans have forgotten her negatives from that time why she could not beat Biden.

It’s amazing to me that people are arguing that an old, but effective, incumbent President has no chance to beat a convicted felon who tried to overthrow the US election process.

I don’t think Biden won the first time because he was the best possible Democrat; I think he won by not being Donald Trump. He was a consensus candidate and I don’t see a plurality behind a different candidate today.

But, at my age, my perspective is peppered with the history of the wins and losses I’ve seen the Democrats have over multiple decades.
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Ideally, I’d have a different candidate. But, as you said above, she’s not Trump. Also, she can lay claim as being part of the admin to Bisen’s successes. No one else I’ve heard mentioned can.
 
MyWifeHatesTrain said:
He’s slipping in the polls every day and the man getting off the plane this evening is not going to beat Trump. Hell, I’ll be surprised if they don’t start asking him to resign. This is a mess.

Furthermore, it was clear to me that Vance was a great pick for VP tonight. With the dems having money dry up and nothing going Biden’s way… Vance made a very compelling populist appeal (if you don’t bother to fact check him or think about the fact that Trump very much did the opposite of all of that when he ran on a very similar platform.)

The dems do need to rally, but Biden’s a lost cause.
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Perhaps.

I like Harris. I think she would be a good President. I question if voters will give her the majority of the popular vote in the battleground states that will swing the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden has won all of these states before.
 
Angsty said:
Perhaps.

I like Harris. I think she would be a good President. I question if voters will give her the majority of the popular vote in the battleground states that will swing the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden has won all of these states before.
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Biden won’t win battleground states this time.
 
SnowmaNick said:
Newsom and Harris can’t be on the same ticket by law as the Pres and VP can’t be from the same state. One of the reasons I never understood why so many were talking up Rubio as Trump’s VP pick. He’d have had to give up his senate seat, and move out of FL.
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It’s a bit more nuanced than that but in very close race, it matters.

www.history.com

Can the President and Vice President Be From the Same State? | HISTORY

A particular aspect of the Electoral College system has led to some confusion on this question.
www.history.com www.history.com
 
MyWifeHatesTrain said:
Biden won’t win battleground states this time.
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That’s a speculation, but who in those states is polling ahead of both Biden and Trump?

This is the quandry in my view - there is fear Biden cannot win those states, although he does have a winning track record. However no one else polls better than Biden or Trump with under 120 days before the election. Speculation that anyone other than Biden might win those states is more SWAG than certainty, in my opinion.

Feels like the Anxiety character from Inside Out 2.
 
MyWifeHatesTrain said:
Meh. I don’t think it matters. She’s part of the current campaign. She can speak to abortion rights.

She’ll need to canvass the hell out of everywhere. But she is a key figure in the national stage and the natural successor.

I don’t think anyone else has a hope really.
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This is my thinking as well
 
SnowmaNick said:
Newsom and Harris can’t be on the same ticket by law as the Pres and VP can’t be from the same state. One of the reasons I never understood why so many were talking up Rubio as Trump’s VP pick. He’d have had to give up his senate seat, and move out of FL.
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nah just have trump reestablish NY as his state of residence and problem solved.
 
www.theguardian.com

The American republic is crumbling before us – and Democrats must share the blame | Owen Jones

The dysfunctional US economic system doesn’t work for ordinary people – making it ripe for exploitation by a demagogue such as Trump, says Guardian columnist Owen Jones
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

or if you at least need some laughs to get through these days
Notably, that first book of Vance’s did cast a few aspersions on Donald Trump, as did his public pronouncement of being “a never Trump guy” – and, indeed, some text messages to his former Yale law school roommate in which he mused that Trump might be “America’s Hitler”. Why didn’t Vance carry on analogising the American reich? I want to know if he would have tagged himself “America’s Martin Bormann”, although instinctively I’m getting strong Rudolf Hess vibes. Could very much see JD pulling another ideological U and crash-landing on the Duke of Hamilton’s formal lawns in a couple of years’ time. We’ll have the kettle on.

To be clear, in politics, there’s certainly nothing wrong with changing your mind in response to new information. But if that new information is “hides stolen classified documents in his bathroom/incited an insurrection” and your opinion changes to “wait, seems like a great guy”, then … there is actually something wrong. But it’ll be very watchable to see Trump eventually turning on Vance, as he surely will do in due course. John F Kennedy’s court was famously nicknamed Camelot, but Trump’s is very much more in the Westeros mode. Somehow with even worse food.
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www.theguardian.com

Never doubt the instincts of Donald Trump, who just appointed ‘never Trump guy’ as his running mate | Marina Hyde

In his journey from self-help author to Republican courtier, JD Vance may find the presidential candidate just as fickle as he is, says Guardian columnist Marina Hyde
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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The one thing I'm most worried about is, if it's not Biden, does anyone really have a snowballs chance in hell of winning against Trump?

I think it was Chuck Todd I was listening to talk about this a couple weeks back, and what it would look like if Biden were to drop out.

At the time, polls showed Harris was weaker than Biden against Trump. But there really is no options but her because of late in the game we are.

It takes a lot of time and a lot of money to build a campaign. And raising the money needed takes time. Time that candidate would no longer have. Money and exposure has the greatest influence on the outcome of an election.

With the amount of time we have left, getting a campaign and grassroots movement together is pretty much all but impossible.
 
RenegadeMonster said:
The one thing I'm most worried about is, if it's not Biden, does anyone really have a snowballs chance in hell of winning against Trump?

I think it was Chuck Todd I was listening to talk about this a couple weeks back, and what it would look like if Biden were to drop out.

At the time, polls showed Harris was weaker than Biden against Trump. But there really is no options but her because of late in the game we are.

It takes a lot of time and a lot of money to build a campaign. And raising the money needed takes time. Time that candidate would no longer have. Money and exposure has the greatest influence on the outcome of an election.

With the amount of time we have left, getting a campaign and grassroots movement together is pretty much all but impossible.
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True, but it's not a typical campaign. Most voters just don't want Trump or Biden. And RFK is bat shit enough to not be a valid alternative to them. I think that most anyone without a lot of baggage that the Dems go with will have a better shot. I don't think Harris would fare much better than Biden (which the data supports) and both take what should be a slam dunk and if they pulled out a win it would be closer than it should be. There are several mid-tier known Dems who I think could invigorate the field in the time left. Remember how uncharacteristically long our campaigns are compared to most democracies. There's plenty of time to make a strong case if Biden drops out soon and the real conversation of his replacement and messaging can start.

Of those not talked about at all yet (and would be very outside shots), I think Catherine Masto would be a good choice from a strategic standpoint, preferably at the top of the ticket but even as a VP candidate I think she could pull in some of the needed vote. Katie Porter kind of botched her senate run (lots of factors and most not her fault), but she's also someone who has enough of a profile/popularity that she makes some sense, but probably more as a VP pick than top of the ticket.

Warnock would be an interesting candidate too, but leaving his seat in Georgia up to Kemp to replace pretty much guarantees it's not worth it.

I could also see the Dems being complete fucking idiots and nominating a never-Trump "rhino." Like Liz Chaney would be the most on brand thing they could do.
 
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