Political Discussion

If Republicans win the Presidency, it will be because they always remember what Democrats often forget: the next President does not have to win a majority of the electorate to win the White House.

The winning candidate only needs to win a thin sliver more of the electorate within contested states. In 2016, Trump won four states with margins of victory of 1.2 percentage points or less. Clinton captured over 2.9 million popular votes more than Trump and still lost.

This is why a change so late in the game is fraught. The Democrats have to win more votes where it matters, not just more votes.
 
Angsty said:
If Republicans win the Presidency, it will be because they always remember what Democrats often forget: the next President does not have to win a majority of the electorate to win the White House.

The winning candidate only needs to win a thin sliver more of the electorate within contested states. In 2016, Trump won four states with margins of victory of 1.2 percentage points or less. Clinton captured over 2.9 million popular votes more than Trump and still lost.

This is why a change so late in the game is fraught. The Democrats have to win more votes where it matters, not just more votes.
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This is why I think a change will help them. Biden is fine in the safe states, but not so great in those states he needs to win. A change there to motivate the independents and uninspired Dems is what could push this over into the win column.
 
Angsty said:
If Republicans win the Presidency, it will be because they always remember what Democrats often forget: the next President does not have to win a majority of the electorate to win the White House.

The winning candidate only needs to win a thin sliver more of the electorate within contested states. In 2016, Trump won four states with margins of victory of 1.2 percentage points or less. Clinton captured over 2.9 million popular votes more than Trump and still lost.

This is why a change so late in the game is fraught. The Democrats have to win more votes where it matters, not just more votes.
Click to expand...
I'm torn on this issue. The end goal needs to be keeping Trump out of the White House, period. The Dems have one shot at a replacement at this point and that window is closing fast, I don't think Kamala can pull it off, so it needs to go another direction.

That said, if they do find a replacement, they better be willing to sling arrows, no more of this "being the adult in the room" BS, that's what got us here in the first place. Time to stand up, tell us what you're going to do for us, AND call out Trump and the Reps for what they are, and what they're trying to do, AT A NON-STOP PACE!

If you're going to replace Biden with a wishy-washy candidate, don't bother and cross your fingers. I've always liked Katy Porter, but I think this country is still at a stupid mental block about a woman leader unfortunately. I don't know, I just see too many people walking around completely and utterly complacent to what this election is going to do to this country.
 
Hemotep said:
This is why I think a change will help them. Biden is fine in the safe states, but not so great in those states he needs to win. A change there to motivate the independents and uninspired Dems is what could push this over into the win column.
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I might agree if we were not talking about a hypothetical candidate one month before the DNC.

Even if Biden stepped down today, any candidate emerging out of the DNC in Chicago will be damaged by all the last minute in-fighting it took to secure the top of the ticket and the deep schisms in the party. When has this ever worked?

Remember that the Republicans in 2016 stuck with their primary-winning candidate after the RNC even when he was polling badly against Clinton and many people within the party felt he was unqualified to govern. After the RNC, they just focused on Clinton’s negatives in the states that mattered. The key was he had won the primaries and the “more qualified” candidates had not.
 
Angsty said:
After the RNC, they just focused on Clinton’s negatives in the states that mattered.
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And this is what the Dems need to do if they stick with Biden, again, a replacement at this point needs to be pretty close to a slam dunk, but who the hell is that in the Democratic party at this point? Newsome?
 
AnthonyI said:
I'm torn on this issue. The end goal needs to be keeping Trump out of the White House, period. The Dems have one shot at a replacement at this point and that window is closing fast, I don't think Kamala can pull it off, so it needs to go another direction.

That said, if they do find a replacement, they better be willing to sling arrows, no more of this "being the adult in the room" BS, that's what got us here in the first place. Time to stand up, tell us what you're going to do for us, AND call out Trump and the Reps for what they are, and what they're trying to do, AT A NON-STOP PACE!

If you're going to replace Biden with a wishy-washy candidate, don't bother and cross your fingers. I've always liked Katy Porter, but I think this country is still at a stupid mental block about a woman leader unfortunately. I don't know, I just see too many people walking around completely and utterly complacent to what this election is going to do to this country.
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I love Katie Porter too but I was trying to think of someone else that would be good. I still think Wes Moore, the governor or Maryland is going to be an excellent presidential candidate at some point. But the other name I kept coming back to was Jason Kandor. Dude is excellent in front of a mic and very quick witted. He lost his run for senate and Governor but that was more due to no Dem having a snowballs chance in hell at winning in the state of Missouri currently. He gives me Pete Buttigieg vibes without all the McKinsey baggage.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Jason Kander - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
I love Katie Porter too but I was trying to think of someone else that would be good. I still think Wes Moore, the governor or Maryland is going to be an excellent presidential candidate at some point. But the other name I kept coming back to was Jason Kandor. Dude is excellent in front of a mic and very quick witted. He lost his run for senate and Governor but that was more due to no Dem having a snowballs chance in hell at winning in the state of Missouri currently. He gives me Pete Buttigieg vibes without all the McKinsey baggage.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Jason Kander - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
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Unfortunately I think this is the "roadmap" between now and Nov. :sick:
1721309157613.png
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
Agreed and that is why some understandably express hesitancy regarding replacing Biden as he at first glance seems like the easiest path but he’s just not the same guy he was in 2020.
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Honestly with him supposedly being open to calls for him to stand down, I feel more hopeful for this election than I have since he announced he was going to run again. Even though I don't agree with a lot of Harris's policies and think she makes way too many unforced errors, and has baggage from her failed primary four years ago, she probably gets a slight edge over Biden after his senior moments the last couple weeks and if the election were today I'd give her a slight advantage over Biden in a matchup against Trump/Vance.

I'm mostly just pissed that so many Dems and his campaign were covering for him, when clearly this isn't behavior that just started last month. They put their own ambitions ahead of the good of the country and cost us all this time. It was a very Trumpian circle move.

But there are very few candidates who wouldn't be better than Biden on top of the Democratic ticket at this point. I don't think changing him is going to lose you any votes. He's not popular and his favorability numbers with the base are really poor. But as the incumbent he gets the support since there were no other viable alternatives with any party support.

Any number of candidates, especially someone who is articulate and speaks well in front of a crowd, can do it. Since there's no primary, and I assume most care more about beating Trump than anything else at the moment, policy differences are practically meaningless at this point. It's mainly just a popularity contest at this point. Find someone charismatic who broadly supports the Dem agenda. Pro choice, believes in science, platitudes on economic inequality and you're there. Biden's done so little face work with the public in the last year that I really don't think it'll be that hard to swap him out successfully.

All in all Biden dropping out and getting anyone with the slightest name recognition and good public speaking and I think our odds will rise!
 

Would-be assassin posted on gaming site that ‘July 13 will be my premiere, watch as it unfolds,’ source says​


Thomas Matthew Crooks, the shooter in the failed assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump, wrote on the popular gaming platform Steam that “July 13 will be my premiere, watch as it unfolds,” a source familiar with the matter told CNN.

The source did not elaborate on timing or whether there were other posts.

Investigators have been trying to learn more about what Crooks was doing in the days and hours leading up to his attempt to assassinate the former president. Crooks visited the Trump rally location twice, his cell phone contained images of both Trump and President Joe Biden, and the would-be assassin’s search history included dates of the Democratic National Convention as well as future Trump events, three US officials told CNN.

But investigators combing through Crooks’ physical and digital trail still lack the key detail that would explain why the 20-year-old climbed the roof in Butler, Pennsylvania, with an AR-style weapon: a motive.

Crooks also conducted searches online about major depression disorder, administration officials told Congress during briefings Wednesday.



So far this is the only thing found that Crooks may have been up to something. It does sound more like he wanted fame / his name to be known. So more of a mass shooting than a politically or extremist motivated assassinating.
 
Maybe not but as it stands now you're going to lose with him in the race. At least give the people who claim to want a younger option that choice. I'm sure they'll come up with other reasons why Kamala is not worthy of their vote but that just exposes them for the utter frauds they are. Then if Trump gets elected and bad shit happens to people they care about, they can feel great knowing they either threw away their vote on a 3rd party or they stayed home. They'll bitch on social media all the same.
 
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