Currently Kamala has a lower approval rating than Biden. She would get crushed in the general election.
Even a 5 point dip in the polls would still leave Biden within single digits of Trump. Obama was down 12 points to Romney closer to election than than this.
I am not saying he won’t step down but something else would need to happen between now and the convention for that to happen.
As part of the world holding their breath, there is no doubt in my mind that Biden is a good person and has been a good president, particularly considering the damage little hands did.
If Trump had won re-election, Ukraine would be under Russian rule, NATO would be weaker and in disarray, Hamas and Iran would be united in a war against an unrestrained Israel, the Supereme Court would be a near dictatorship in of itself, and the United States itself would increasingly be run by decree and not rule of law.
So I am all in for Joe. I would take a senile Joe over a psychopath any day. I would take a well behaved dog over Trump.
Bear in mind, approval ratings do not translate into poll standings, if they did, the gap facing Joe would be wider.
And I don't care about the national average approval ratings, as there is no single national election. I am only interested in the electoral college map. Kamala sucks in states that Joe sucks in too, maybe a bit worse than Joe because those states there is a much higher incidence of racist attitudes that won't accept her. In more enlightened states, her numbers aren't as bad.
Also bear in mind that poll standing of a hypothetical always changes when they are no longer a hypothetical, and people start to take a harder look.
Again, I am looking at some distance, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage. And I am well aware that in the United States there is still racism, mysoginy, demagogery and religious fundamentalism that would impede a female, non-white candidate. But despite that, I feel that Kamala would wipe up on Trump.
And if I look at it in the battlegrounds, Kamala would probably do better than Joe.