Political Discussion

TenderLovingKiller® said:
who are the voters you thinks she’s trying to win in these swing states?

Suburban Moms who worry about a psycho coming to a school with assault weapons or gun nuts?

You gotta dig down deeper than a just say swing states love their guns. The voters that worry about losing their guns were never gonna vote for Biden or Harris to begin with.

Suburban moms might be on the fence due frustration with inflation and fears of crime. This would be something that would appeal to them along with Abortion Rights, and childcare.
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More concerned about suburban dad tbh. A very large % of independents are men. And unfortunately a lot of them care a lot more about there guns than they do their daughters right to an abortion.

Interestingly, what guns and abortion do have common is that the masses are in favor of both gun control and abortion. But also thar drilling down exactly what that means is complicated. Most people are in favor of stronger background check, red flag laws, ext. But a good chunk of people who say they want gun control also get upset when bans on guns (assualt weapons) become the convo. Very similar to they way people have very different beliefs on the timeframes (or context) that constitute an "okay" abortion.

I can't find data on assault weapons that drill deep but here's some good polling in general that gives the issue some nuance.

Of note, PE, WI, AZ, MI are all huge gun states. I presume Georgia is too but can't speak to it. Also, there have been a lot of studies that show that putting gun control on ballot drives turnup for gun enthuisasts while not impacting whether Dems do.

www.pewresearch.org

8. Gun attitudes and the 2024 election

Biden and Trump supporters are deeply divided over prioritizing gun control vs. gun rights and whether gun ownership increases safety.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
 
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ayayrawn said:
Fuck this ghoul

apnews.com

In fiery speech to Congress, Netanyahu vows 'total victory' in Gaza and denounces US protesters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged in a scathing speech to Congress to achieve “total victory” against Hamas and criticized American opponents of the war in Gaza as “idiots.”
apnews.com apnews.com
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These assholes always have to contradict themselves:
Republicans said the absence of Harris, the new Democratic front-runner for the presidency, was a sign of disloyalty to an ally. Former President Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, was also a no-show for Netanyahu’s speech, citing the need to campaign.
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DownIsTheNewUp said:
More concerned about suburban dad tbh. A very large % of independents are men. And unfortunately a lot of them care a lot more about there guns than they do their daughters right to an abortion.

Interestingly, what guns and abortion do have common is that the masses are in favor of both gun control and abortion. But also thar drilling down exactly what that means is complicated. Most people are in favor of stronger background check, red flag laws, ext. But a good chunk of people who say they want gun control also get upset when bans on guns (assualt weapons) become the convo. Very similar to they way people have very different beliefs on the timeframes (or context) that constitute an "okay" abortion.

I can't find data on assault weapons that drill deep but here's some good polling in general that gives the issue some nuance.

Of note, PE, WI, AZ, MI are all huge gun states. I presume Georgia is too but can't speak to it. Also, there have been a lot of studies that show that putting gun control on ballot drives turnup for gun enthuisasts while not impacting whether Dems do.

www.pewresearch.org

8. Gun attitudes and the 2024 election

Biden and Trump supporters are deeply divided over prioritizing gun control vs. gun rights and whether gun ownership increases safety.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
Click to expand...
This is a base turnout election. Suburban dad driving a big truck and shooting up beer cans with AR-15s in the woods after work with his buddies are Trump voters. They always have been. They weren’t voting for Biden or Kamala or anyone else that the Dems could have run.

Some of those guys wives though are up for grabs. Those are the people that Kamala is striving for.

“Independents” are more likely to be low information conservatives than anything. The way the Dems win swing states is driving up College Educated suburban Whites, POC, and Young people. If those bases voted reliably, this wouldn’t even be a competitive race. Most of those voters look at gun control as a positive. Sure there are other issue Kamala will need to address before November but their is a spark now and addressing gun control is not going to dim it with her base.

The bigger point is Democrats actually can talk about policy now. They can highlight the differences between Trump and Kamala policywise. With Biden there was such a dearth of enthusiasm, the conversation never went beyond these guys are too old. Now Kamala can shine a light on the difference while also giving the base something to get excited about.
 
ayayrawn said:
Fuck this ghoul

apnews.com

In fiery speech to Congress, Netanyahu vows 'total victory' in Gaza and denounces US protesters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged in a scathing speech to Congress to achieve “total victory” against Hamas and criticized American opponents of the war in Gaza as “idiots.”
apnews.com apnews.com
Click to expand...
Constant standing ovations for this century's Hitler. Well done, folks! If Kamala doesn't distance herself explicitly and immediately from this, the youth will abandon her in droves again.
 
MyWifeHatesTrain said:
She has to maintain this enthusiasm. It will be hard and she needs to travel pretty much the whole time. And talk to people.
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It’s easier to maintain over bit over 100 days than it is 24 month or a decade (for Trump).

Honestly both parties would be wise to revisit their nominating process, 3 months is likely too short but 24 month (or longer) is waaaayyyy too long.
 
BjorgenFjorgen said:
No, she's out campaigning and will meet him in private in the coming days. I mean explicitly breaking from the current admin's policy on giving Israel whatever it wants and forcing an end to the genocide. That means a forceful statement, not just not showing up.
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My understanding is that this is an issue that she is not inline with Biden on. However, I’m not sure it’s a great idea to make that explicit now while she is still VP. Not engaging and not explicitly providing support may be the best we get until after she wins.
 
BjorgenFjorgen said:
No, she's out campaigning and will meet him in private in the coming days. I mean explicitly breaking from the current admin's policy on giving Israel whatever it wants and forcing an end to the genocide. That means a forceful statement, not just not showing up.
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That’s not going to happen. It’s just not. This issue is like touching the 3rd rail. She will avoid and be vague and will nominally be less supportive of the Netanyahu government but nothing is going to drastically change.
 
My understanding of the dynamics of the Israel situation may mean she doesn’t pull support after she wins either. It really is a National Security issue. I would like to see pressure to get Netanyahu out of office, but we aren’t going to see the US abandon Israel any time soon. The whole world fucked this one up.
 
Angsty said:
I might agree if we were not talking about a hypothetical candidate one month before the DNC.

Even if Biden stepped down today, any candidate emerging out of the DNC in Chicago will be damaged by all the last minute in-fighting it took to secure the top of the ticket and the deep schisms in the party. When has this ever worked?
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Harris effectively nullified my concern regarding the convention, illustrated in this sharp summary in the Washington Post:

“Within 48 hours, Ms. Harris had functionally cleared the Democratic field of every serious rival, clinched the support of more delegates than needed to secure the party nomination, raised more than $100 million and delivered a crisper message against former President Donald J. Trump than Mr. Biden had mustered in months.”

The effectiveness and efficiency of that 48 hour operation was truly impressive.
 
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