I came across an intriguing article on Wired about climate change and the Atlantic Ocean’s collapse current. It was quite surprising to learn how controversial this topic is and how little the scientific community seems to be investing in it.
The World Scientific Board on Climate Change generally agrees that it won’t happen before 2100 and gives it a 1 out of 10 chance of occurring at medium confidence. One scientist summed it up perfectly: they really don’t know or understand it. Given the potential consequences, wouldn’t you want to figure it out?
In 2021, one team published a research paper suggesting it could happen sooner than we thought, but they didn’t provide a specific date. Another team released an academic research paper in 2023 using two different models they developed to estimate a date. One model predicted 2057, while the other kept falling on 2025 through 2095, with 2057 in the middle. This was quite surprising and concerning because if that’s the case, we should be putting in a lot more effort to understand what’s happening, how to delay it as long as possible, and prepare for the world after.
They released the paper expecting to be challenged and even wanted people to prove them wrong. However, instead, the scientific community dismissed them as foolish and their findings as highly controversial. The issue is that they used sea temperature recordings dating back to 1749, the age of sailing. Ships’ logs would record their location, water temperature, and the depth they took the reading at. How they measured this varied. It wasn’t until the 1970s with the deployment of buoys that sea surface temperatures had a standardized way of being measured.
Scientists have been collecting data on sea surface temperature from ship logs for years. But when it comes to using this data to make predictions in models, they’re not convinced. They say the data is incomplete and unreliable. Too many assumptions need to be made with statistical models to fill in the gaps, so they don’t think we should use it to predict when the ocean current could collapse. Basically, they’re saying we don’t have reliable data until the 1970s, and only the data from that decade and onwards should be used to make predictions like this. And even that’s not enough. They say we need a records dating back much further than the 1970s to even try to make predictions.
I agree with the scientists. With something as serious as this, wouldn’t we want to use any data available to try to figure this out? Using data dating back 150 years earlier than the 1950s is the only way we’re going to be able to even attempt to make predictions.
The World Scientific Board on Climate Change generally agrees that it won’t happen before 2100 and gives it a 1 out of 10 chance of occurring at medium confidence. One scientist summed it up perfectly: they really don’t know or understand it. Given the potential consequences, wouldn’t you want to figure it out?
In 2021, one team published a research paper suggesting it could happen sooner than we thought, but they didn’t provide a specific date. Another team released an academic research paper in 2023 using two different models they developed to estimate a date. One model predicted 2057, while the other kept falling on 2025 through 2095, with 2057 in the middle. This was quite surprising and concerning because if that’s the case, we should be putting in a lot more effort to understand what’s happening, how to delay it as long as possible, and prepare for the world after.
They released the paper expecting to be challenged and even wanted people to prove them wrong. However, instead, the scientific community dismissed them as foolish and their findings as highly controversial. The issue is that they used sea temperature recordings dating back to 1749, the age of sailing. Ships’ logs would record their location, water temperature, and the depth they took the reading at. How they measured this varied. It wasn’t until the 1970s with the deployment of buoys that sea surface temperatures had a standardized way of being measured.
Scientists have been collecting data on sea surface temperature from ship logs for years. But when it comes to using this data to make predictions in models, they’re not convinced. They say the data is incomplete and unreliable. Too many assumptions need to be made with statistical models to fill in the gaps, so they don’t think we should use it to predict when the ocean current could collapse. Basically, they’re saying we don’t have reliable data until the 1970s, and only the data from that decade and onwards should be used to make predictions like this. And even that’s not enough. They say we need a records dating back much further than the 1970s to even try to make predictions.
I agree with the scientists. With something as serious as this, wouldn’t we want to use any data available to try to figure this out? Using data dating back 150 years earlier than the 1950s is the only way we’re going to be able to even attempt to make predictions.
