Political Discussion

First off, I’ve heard you talk more about Kamala’s assault weapons ban than anyone, Liberal or Conservative. This is not an issue that your average voter cares about beyond the idea that less guns make them safer. Only extremist are driven by assault weapons bans and these people in Texas or any other state were never voting for Kamala.

Candidates travel to non battleground states for a multitude of reasons. Her visiting Texas to inspire the local communities to get out and vote helps raise money herself and down ballot candidates, Trump campaigns in Florida and New York and Illinois frequently. None of which are really contested states.

Ignoring a state as big and as rich as Texas doesn’t make sense. If she is heading to Texas and Ohio and Florida late in the campaign at the expense of the “Blue Wall” states then everyone should be questioning her process but 3 months out this is the type of campaigning I would expect.
States that aren't winnable for your electoral college needs can at least help you with padding the popular vote totals. You also help all the down ballot races that could swing blue if you have a good top ticket that inspires enthusiasm and stimulates new voters to get off the sidelines.
 
I would think they're on the same level. If you're voting for Trump, you're also voting for Ted Cruz. If you're voting for Kamala, you're also voting against Ted Cruz. Maybe you get a split vote but I just don't see that in this state. They did eliminate straight ticket voting after 2008 because of the Obama effect on down ballot races.

I mean, you'd have to explain it to me, but Cruz is polling in a dead heat. Harris, like Biden was, is down double digits. It would seem to me that there are a lot of independents who don't like Cruz?

First off, I’ve heard you talk more about Kamala’s assault weapons ban than anyone, Liberal or Conservative. This is not an issue that your average voter cares about beyond the idea that less guns make them safer. Only extremist are driven by assault weapons bans and these people in Texas or any other state were never voting for Kamala.

Candidates travel to non battleground states for a multitude of reasons. Her visiting Texas to inspire the local communities to get out and vote helps raise money herself and down ballot candidates, Trump campaigns in Florida and New York and Illinois frequently. None of which are really contested states.

Ignoring a state as big and as rich as Texas doesn’t make sense. If she is heading to Texas and Ohio and Florida late in the campaign at the expense of the “Blue Wall” states then everyone should be questioning her process but 3 months out this is the type of campaigning I would expect.

A lot of this is very fair. Same time? I retain my suspicion and think it's justified. It's no coincidence that there is suddenly massive smoke around Khan being fired nor that all the tech money has reversed flow now that Biden is out. This is who Kamala has always been, a politician that is fundraising machine via corporate America.

If she comes out and finally squashes the Khan rumors, or she makes mention of the billionaire tax that was going to be at the heart of Biden's campaign than I'll eat crow.

The fact that you think only extremists care about an assuslt weapon ban is why you feel this way but also isn't grounded in reality. Beto's decision to go for an assualt weapon ban played a large role in tanking his 2nd campaign. And I focus on it specifically because I'm convinced it's a problematic tactic in a country that forces us to utilize an electoral college. Go spend 30 mins on r/moderatepolitics and you'll see its coming up in almost every thread. And more importantly, is being used to deflect any conversation around Trump's authoritarian tendencies.

Honest question, where in the country are you located?
 
I mean, you'd have to explain it to me, but Cruz is polling in a dead heat. Harris, like Biden was, is down double digits. It would seem to me that there are a lot of independents who don't like Cruz?
People have hated Cruz for years and yet the Canadian cockroach still survives. People hate him but still pull the lever. If Kamala can add more voters and they go for Allred then maybe it's enough. I'll believe it when I see it. We appear to be getting the worst people moving from blue states. I've heard for multiple cycles that Texas is turning purple. I've yet to ever see it at the state level. DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and parts of South Texas go blue. The rest is solidly red.

As far as polling, she's lagging because she's still newish to people and Biden was unpopular here which again makes little sense but when has anyone here made sense in 30 years. Maybe she closes the gap the more the campaign goes on. It's happening elsewhere.
 
People have hated Cruz for years and yet the Canadian cockroach still survives. People hate him but still pull the lever. If Kamala can add more voters and they go for Allred then maybe it's enough. I'll believe it when I see it. We appear to be getting the worst people moving from blue states. I've heard for multiple cycles that Texas is turning purple. I've yet to ever see it at the state level. DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and parts of South Texas go blue. The rest is solidly red.

As far as polling, she's lagging because she's still newish to people and Biden was unpopular here which again makes little sense but when has anyone here made sense in 30 years. Maybe she closes the gap the more the campaign goes on. It's happening elsewhere.

I don't know if you saw it but there was a really good breakdown that went viral on social media.... basically Democrats don't vote in TX out of a belief that its a lost cause whicb then turns it into a lost cause.
 
I mean, you'd have to explain it to me, but Cruz is polling in a dead heat. Harris, like Biden was, is down double digits. It would seem to me that there are a lot of independents who don't like Cruz?



A lot of this is very fair. Same time? I retain my suspicion and think it's justified. It's no coincidence that there is suddenly massive smoke around Khan being fired nor that all the tech money has reversed flow now that Biden is out. This is who Kamala has always been, a politician that is fundraising machine via corporate America.

If she comes out and finally squashes the Khan rumors, or she makes mention of the billionaire tax that was going to be at the heart of Biden's campaign than I'll eat crow.

The fact that you think only extremists care about an assuslt weapon ban is why you feel this way but also isn't grounded in reality. Beto's decision to go for an assualt weapon ban played a large role in tanking his 2nd campaign. And I focus on it specifically because I'm convinced it's a problematic tactic in a country that forces us to utilize an electoral college. Go spend 30 mins on r/moderatepolitics and you'll see its coming up in almost every thread. And more importantly, is being used to deflect any conversation around Trump's authoritarian tendencies.

Honest question, where in the country are you located?

Right now, Tacoma WA but I was born and raised in a small town in Central IL a hundred miles south of Chicago in I-55, in Pontiac. A lot of my class mates and friends are middle class. Quite a few were farmers and hunters. The ones that care about guns to the point that identify as a gun owner, the ones one that own assault weapons. Those people are dye in the wool MAGA people. My buddies still in town with kids and a mortgage that don’t identify as parent’s worry more about gun violence. They can’t stand Trump and would vote for an anthropomorphic assault weapon ban over Donald Trump.

For some context, this is the last photo my younger brother sent me…
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Also, acting like the only people posting on r/moderatepolitics are moderates is a bit of a stretch. If anyone cares about politics enough to post on a Reddit thread about politics seriously has me doubting whether they don’t already know how they are gonna vote.

Lastly, we must run in different bubbles. As I see way more concern amongst friends and in the media about Trumps threat to democracy than Kamala thread to assault weapons. You are literally the only person I have talked with that is concerned about it. The Brady Bill banned assault weapons from 1994 to 2004 and Bill Clinton, who signed the bill into law, still manage to win reelection in1996.

Banning assault weapons is the mainstream position. It always has been.
 
I don't know if you saw it but there was a really good breakdown that went viral on social media.... basically Democrats don't vote in TX out of a belief that its a lost cause whicb then turns it into a lost cause.
I mean the metro areas all voted pretty highly for Biden in 2020. Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio all have Democratic representatives. There aren't enough Democrats overall in the state to overcome the redness of the rest of the state. It gets very tiring that people only seem to care about national races when everything local affects them in a much greater way than the people at the national level. Your city council, mayor, and state representatives matter a lot more to your day to day than who is president. If you can't be bothered to vote locally regardless of if your vote makes a difference nationally then I don't really know what's going to reach you. If Kamala coming to Texas multiple times helps get people off the sidelines then let's do it. If she's also hitting up donors, I really don't give a shit. We need to beat Trump and that takes money.

And who knows, maybe after multiple mass shootings in Texas since 2020 like Uvalde and Allen, maybe people are a little more receptive to considering a ban on military style weapons. But probably not because we care more about the guns than people much less school kids.
 
Right now, Tacoma WA but I was born and raised in a small town in Central IL a hundred miles south of Chicago in I-55, in Pontiac. A lot of my class mates and friends are middle class. Quite a few were farmers and hunters. The ones that care about guns to the point that identify as a gun owner, the ones one that own assault weapons. Those people are dye in the wool MAGA people. My buddies still in town with kids and a mortgage that don’t identify as parent’s worry more about gun violence. They can’t stand Trump and would vote for an anthropomorphic assault weapon ban over Donald Trump.

For some context, this is the last photo my younger brother sent me…
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Also, acting like the only people posting on r/moderatepolitics are moderates is a bit of a stretch. If anyone cares about politics enough to post on a Reddit thread about politics seriously has me doubting whether they don’t already know how they are gonna vote.

Lastly, we must run in different bubbles. As I see way more concern amongst friends and in the media about Trumps threat to democracy than Kamala thread to assault weapons. You are literally the only person I have talked with that is concerned about it. The Brady Bill banned assault weapons from 1994 to 2004 and Bill Clinton, who signed the bill into law, still manage to win reelection in1996.

Banning assault weapons is the mainstream position. It always has been.
The vast majority of people who identify as moderate in America in 2024 are just right wing with extra steps.
 
The vast majority of people who identify as moderate in America in 2024 are just right wing with extra steps.
and, especially in the online arena, when people self-describe as moderate they're just cloaking their leanings with a common-sense attitude. For a while Musk was using the "moderate" identity to frame his descent into the right (or his mask-off revelation of right-wing leanings which were always there)
 
and, especially in the online arena, when people self-describe as moderate they're just cloaking their leanings with a common-sense attitude. For a while Musk was using the "moderate" identity to frame his descent into the right (or his mask-off revelation of right-wing leanings which were always there)
There was a piece on NPR about this. Same with people who identify as "not poltical." I hate politics, quit making my video games/movies/shows political (portraying women and minorities).
 
and, especially in the online arena, when people self-describe as moderate they're just cloaking their leanings with a common-sense attitude. For a while Musk was using the "moderate" identity to frame his descent into the right (or his mask-off revelation of right-wing leanings which were always there)
Yup, their moderate positions usually include a lot of right wing dog whistle and parroting a bunch of Fox News talking points.

The amount of times I’ve seen self described moderates reference “Social Justice Warriors” “Cancel Culture” and “Virtue Signaling” after prefacing their comment by claiming their moderate bona fides is fairly laughable.
 
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There was a piece on NPR about this. Same with people who identify as "not poltical." I hate politics, quit making my video games/movies/shows political (portraying women and minorities).
I'd love to read that piece. A few months back I saw a tweet where someone pointed out that if you have a problem with media injecting diversity and colorblind casting into the production process, perhaps you're just offended by the aesthetics of diversity. A couple years back my BIL was texting me about Rings of Power and circling this rhetoric that he isn't bothered by Black elves, what matters is whether the show is good or not. He then introduced me to the Critical Drinker, where he picked up these opinions, and I haven't had a good opportunity since to circle back with my BIL on this but...well, it's all this same strain of framing reactionary opinions as a common-sense perspective.

It reminds me of something my therapist said when I mentioned a debate where the opposing person said "I'm not pessimistic, I'm realistic;" when someone says that, they're saying "I'm not a pessimist; I'm right." Similarly: I'm not a reactionary, I'm rational/moderate.
 
Yup, their moderate positions usually include a lot of right wing dog whistle and parroting a bunch of Fox News talking points.

The amount of times I’ve seen self described moderates reference “Social Justice Warriors” “Cancel Culture” and “Virtue Signaling” before prefacing their comment by claiming their moderate bona fides is fairly laughable.
But I voted for Lieberman once!
 
I'd love to read that piece. A few months back I saw a tweet where someone pointed out that if you have a problem with media injecting diversity and colorblind casting into the production process, perhaps you're just offended by the aesthetics of diversity. A couple years back my BIL was texting me about Rings of Power and circling this rhetoric that he isn't bothered by Black elves, what matters is whether the show is good or not. He then introduced me to the Critical Drinker, where he picked up these opinions, and I haven't had a good opportunity since to circle back with my BIL on this but...well, it's all this same strain of framing reactionary opinions as a common-sense perspective.

It reminds me of something my therapist said when I mentioned a debate where the opposing person said "I'm not pessimistic, I'm realistic;" when someone says that, they're saying "I'm not a pessimist; I'm right." Similarly: I'm not a reactionary, I'm rational/moderate.
Found it. More specifically it was about the "zynternet" a recent internet adage that is basically bro-y bullshit that identifies as apolitcal, but is actually conservative.

 
I'd love to read that piece. A few months back I saw a tweet where someone pointed out that if you have a problem with media injecting diversity and colorblind casting into the production process, perhaps you're just offended by the aesthetics of diversity. A couple years back my BIL was texting me about Rings of Power and circling this rhetoric that he isn't bothered by Black elves, what matters is whether the show is good or not. He then introduced me to the Critical Drinker, where he picked up these opinions, and I haven't had a good opportunity since to circle back with my BIL on this but...well, it's all this same strain of framing reactionary opinions as a common-sense perspective.

It reminds me of something my therapist said when I mentioned a debate where the opposing person said "I'm not pessimistic, I'm realistic;" when someone says that, they're saying "I'm not a pessimist; I'm right." Similarly: I'm not a reactionary, I'm rational/moderate.
I agree that people probably do use your last point to obfuscate the truth of their position, but a realistic perspective on the world today is going to necessarily sound more pessimistic than optimistic. Few things have had such a harmful effect on addressing serious global problems than the insane American optimism and toxic positivity. McDonald's sold the idea in the 80s that not only do you work a shit job that pays nothing but you have to do so with a smile. And that BS caught on like wildfire. Customers started to demand it. And it infiltrated the entire political and economic sphere. But things like climate change, a realistic view of it, is incredibly dark. Failing to face up to that by thinking we'll just solve it like we do everything is the opposite of realism.

And I know that wasn't the exact point you're making, but I have to fight this attitude in the classroom and in scientific literature I review constantly. Positive outcomes are not a given and things that appear negative are not wrong.

But yes, lots of assholes try to shove their falsehoods down peoples throats by trying to mask their ideology in the language of realism.
 
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I agree that people probably do use your last point to obfuscate the truth of their position, but a realistic perspective on the world today is going to necessarily sound more pessimistic than optimistic. Few things have had such a harmful effect on addressing serious global problems than the insane American optimism and toxic positivity. McDonald's sold the idea in the 80s that not only do you work a shit job that pays nothing but you have to do so with a smile. And that BS caught on like wildfire. Customers started to demand it. And it infiltrated the entire political and economic sphere. But things like climate change, a realistic view of it, is incredibly dark. Failing to face up to that by thinking we'll just solve it like we do everything is the opposite of realism.

And I know that wasn't the exact point you're making, but I have to fight this attitude in the classroom and in scientific literature I review constantly. Positive outcomes are not a given and things that appear negative are not wrong.

But yes, lots of assholes try to since their falsehoods down peoples throats by trying to mask their ideology in the language of realism.
You're absolutely right, and I think I clouded my point by hitching the reactionary/moderate dichotomy to a pessimist/realist dichotomy; I meant more the logical leap seems similar in both cases, assuming one's perspective is the fixed point at the center of the spectrum.

I will say the pessimist in question here is framing climate change as "humans are innately monstrous, we destroy everything we touch, and we deserve this," which I'd argue is a little more pessimistic and hyperbolic than "we're doing down a dark road and things are going to get much worse if we don't intervene."
 
You're absolutely right, and I think I clouded my point by hitching the reactionary/moderate dichotomy to a pessimist/realist dichotomy; I meant more the logical leap seems similar in both cases, assuming one's perspective is the fixed point at the center of the spectrum.

I will say the pessimist in question here is framing climate change as "humans are innately monstrous, we destroy everything we touch, and we deserve this," which I'd argue is a little more pessimistic and hyperbolic than "we're doing down a dark road and things are going to get much worse if we don't intervene."
Absolutely. That's definitely going into a value judgement which is deviating pretty far from "realism." But I agree that I've met plenty who've voiced those kinds of beliefs and don't realize that it's not the kind of value-free realism they think it is. It sees things in a binary framework ignoring that we live in contradiction. Things are rarely ever either/or, they're usually both/and. Some people suck and deserve it, some people are babies and have done nothing to deserve any of this.

This is why the thing I write as feedback so much I need to get a stamp of it, is don't use exaggerated language. Be specific. As soon as you say all or none, I only need to think of one example for you to be wrong, even if your point is mostly right, because you didn't say mostly, you said all. If I could teach this one point to all my students I'd feel like a good teacher. But having someone like Trump who lives in that kind of language for the power of ambiguity (it's just jokes, bro) is the worst example for them.
 
Right now, Tacoma WA but I was born and raised in a small town in Central IL a hundred miles south of Chicago in I-55, in Pontiac. A lot of my class mates and friends are middle class. Quite a few were farmers and hunters. The ones that care about guns to the point that identify as a gun owner, the ones one that own assault weapons. Those people are dye in the wool MAGA people. My buddies still in town with kids and a mortgage that don’t identify as parent’s worry more about gun violence. They can’t stand Trump and would vote for an anthropomorphic assault weapon ban over Donald Trump.

For some context, this is the last photo my younger brother sent me…
View attachment 210123
Also, acting like the only people posting on r/moderatepolitics are moderates is a bit of a stretch. If anyone cares about politics enough to post on a Reddit thread about politics seriously has me doubting whether they don’t already know how they are gonna vote.

Lastly, we must run in different bubbles. As I see way more concern amongst friends and in the media about Trumps threat to democracy than Kamala thread to assault weapons. You are literally the only person I have talked with that is concerned about it. The Brady Bill banned assault weapons from 1994 to 2004 and Bill Clinton, who signed the bill into law, still manage to win reelection in1996.

Banning assault weapons is the mainstream position. It always has been.

As always, I appreciate the long and thoughtful response. It's good to understand where you are coming from.

I'd start by pointing out that moderate is not the same thing as casual. There are definitely some right wingers on r/politics (in part because the sub puts an emphasis on discussing things with a moderate tone). However, MUCH of the sub is comprised of people who feel at home in either party and thus, don't want to be on r/conservative or r/politics (which leans very left).

I don't think we necessarily ride in different circles. Most of my friends are of the same mindset-- but they are also the ones who were going to vote blue no matter what. And of that group, Palestine / Israel is the thing that has them on the fence. Or at least had them on the fence with Biden. I'm also in IL so they have the luxury of being in a safely blue state.

That said, I think the primary difference in our views is that I have long run in activist circles (went on hiatus during the pandemic and haven't returned) that I'm still very connected to online. I also spent 1000's of hours door knocking without a voter registration list between 2015-2020 (in five different states) because the campaigns I was working for were always fighting an uphill battle against the DNC machine. This includes Bernie twice but also multiple local elections and several props.

During my time door knocking, two of the most common personality types I came across were A) "I'm economically very liberal and socially basically a libertarian on social issues (across the board) but I don't any of our politicians because they are corporate whore"s. Of note, this comes close very close to my world view except that I do want gun control. The other very common personality type was the "I believe in the free market, am liberal on social issues but don't trust our politicians". The later type is VERY common where I grew up in Colorado- except in CO a lot of those people are the type of educated Republican who has been pushed out of the party by Trump instead of unregistered.

Now what I would note is that none of the states I was in are known as particularly reglious (CA, NV, AZ, CO, IA). Instead, most of them lean "wild, Wild West" in their core values. But either way, all the assertions here that moderate voters don't exist are wild to me. 1/3 of the country is independents. And while a solid chunk of those independents are progressives who are to the left of Democrats (or fall into personality type 1), a very large amount of them are closer to personality type 2. People who still want to believe that free-market economics work but who find themselves disgusted by the stranglehold hate, bigotry and (to some degree) religion has on the GOP.

And while I'm sure a solid chunk of the disenfranchised people I spoke to are now Trump supporters-- there are also a ton of people who went Obama-Trump-Biden. And those people will likely decide the election.
 
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Now what I would note is that none of the states I was in are known as particularly reglious (CA, NV, AZ, CO, IA). Instead, most of them lean "wild, Wild West" in their core values. But either way, all the assertions here that moderate voters don't exist are wild to me. 1/3 of the country is independents. And while a solid chunk of those independents are progressives who are to the left of Democrats (or fall into personality type 1), a very large amount of them are closer to personality type 2. People who still want to believe that free-market economics work but who find themselves disgusted by the stranglehold hate, bigotry and (to some degree) religion has on the GOP.
Not to get hung up on minutia but I would disagree with including Iowa. The state is very Midwestern, similar to Central Illinois and most of the other states that grow endless fields of corn and soybeans. They are traditionally Protestant/Catholic. Church is still a big part of community probably only second to local bars and taverns. I have never spent much time in the other states listed but I can certainly attest than none of my friends or family in Iowa would consider themselves to have a “Wild West” core value. They are much more Fargo than No Country For Old Men.
 
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